Friday, June 26, 2026

Stats for 2026-06-26 (4th week of the Month)

1. Market Trend Analysis

The final week of June 2026 presents a highly visible structural shift in the market regime, characterized by a rapid cyclical rotation away from mega-cap technology and into broader, smaller-capitalization equities. This structural bifurcation is underscored by a notable breakdown in institutional mega-cap leadership, contrasted against surging breadth in previously neglected market segments.

Multi-Week Trend & Exchange Distribution

Over the last trailing 4-week window, leadership has progressively decentralized from the dominant Nasdaq-100 cohort. As of June 26, 2026, the list distribution rests at 70.4% Nasdaq and 29.6% NYSE/Amex. While the Nasdaq remains the largest home for high-GPA growth structures, capital flows are rapidly dispersing into small-cap and mid-cap spaces. The most compelling evidence of this risk-on broadening is found in the Median Market Cap, which has adjusted up to 10,753. This indicates that the average mid-and-small-sized enterprise is experiencing a significant lift in liquidity, transitioning the market out of a narrow, top-heavy regime into a healthier, broad-market expansion.

Oscillator Interpretation & Momentum

The broader index momentum remains stable, with the standard SPY Oscillator holding a reading of 1.00. However, underlying sector dynamics tell a vastly different story.

Small-cap trackers have experienced an aggressive multi-week surge in momentum, with the IJR (S&P Small-Cap 600) Oscillator hitting a massive 12.00 (and 2.00 bound metric). Similarly, MDY (Mid-Cap S&P 400) has expanded to an oscillator of 5.00. This massive push in small/mid-cap velocity indicates that market participants are aggressively covering underweighted cyclical positions. Conversely, mega-cap-heavy sectors are showing clear signs of deceleration: XLK (Technology) sits at an oscillator of 15.00 but features a low bound metric (0.48), confirming that its rate of change has drastically slowed relative to the small-cap complex.

GPA Insights & Fundamental Quality

The fundamental quality of the leading cohort remains remarkably robust. The Gross Profitability Asset (GPA) data highlights a high concentration of fundamentally elite companies sustaining the broader shift. Semiconductors and systemic equipment providers command the highest tier of corporate efficiency, with TSM, MU, ASML, ASX, and TER sitting at the maximum GPA cap of 3.96.

Importantly, this high fundamental quality is no longer exclusive to tech. Large financials and industrials like BMO (3.96), HWM (3.92), and construction/engineering play AGX (3.96) are displaying top-tier GPA marks. This means the current rotation into cyclical and industrial names is backed by hard fundamental strength rather than speculative, low-quality junk.

Sector Rotation Profile

  • Strong Uptrend (Capital Sinks): Biotech (XBI), Health Care Services (XHS), Pharmaceuticals (XPH), and Small Caps (IJR/IWM) are leading the charge. Industrials (XLI) and Banks (KBE) are rapidly climbing the relative strength ranks.

  • Weakening Uptrend/Exhaustion: Information Technology (VGT) and Semiconductors (SMH) have shifted to "very weak uptrend" status. While long-term structural drivers remain, short-term liquidity is actively being harvested from these winners.

  • Trouble/Correction Signs: Communication Services (XLC/VOX), Energy (XLE/VDE), and precious metals (GLD/SLV) are flashing signs of acute trouble, showing negative relative momentum.

Mega-Cap Leadership Check

A definitive warning sign has emerged from the market's heavyweights: The mega caps are experiencing a leadership breakdown.

Evaluating the individual oscillator metrics of the S&P 500's primary drivers reveals a sharp transition into negative territory:

  • Broadcom (AVGO): Oscillator -16

  • Microsoft (MSFT): Oscillator -20

  • NVIDIA (NVDA): Oscillator -16

  • Meta Platforms (META): Oscillator -30

This overwhelming majority of negative oscillators among top-tier mega caps confirms they are not participating in the current week's upside. Because the underlying indices (like SPY) remain stable while mega caps fall, this confirms a massive, underlying expansion of market breadth. The rally is broadening out; money is leaving the crowded mega-cap AI trade to fund purchases in small-caps, health care, and financials.

[Market Status]
Regime: Risk-On / Broadening
Trend Stage: Mid-Trend Rotation
Risk Level: Medium (Elevated due to Mega-Cap Divergence)

2. Economic Outlook

The underlying message from the data suggests an economy undergoing a structural transition, likely moving into a late-cycle re-acceleration or an early-cycle expansion where inflation pressures flatten, and credit conditions loosen. The aggressive surge into Small Caps (IJR/IWM) and regional banking networks (KBE) strongly implies that market participants are pricing in a domestic economic "soft landing" or a resilient growth backdrop, rather than an imminent recession. This view is fortified by strong capital deployment into transportation (XTN) and industrials (VIS), which act as structural bellwethers for physical commerce and manufacturing health. Market sentiment can be best classified as transitional and rotationally bullish; while there is clear defensive positioning occurring via health care services and pharma, it is paired with highly aggressive risk-appetite in small-cap growth and biotechnologies, painting a picture of an economy where liquidity remains ample and the consumer is stabilizing.

3. Investment Ideas

Capital allocation must adapt immediately to this clear structural change by implementing a barbell strategy that avoids the valuation risks of over-concentrated mega-cap technology. Tactical alpha is currently being generated by migrating down the market-cap spectrum into high-GPA small-caps and mid-caps, which are benefiting from historic valuation discounts and expanding market breadth. Style preference has decisively flipped toward Small-Cap Growth and Cyclical Value over Mega-Cap Secular Growth. Portfolio construction should actively lock in profits from crowded semiconductor positions and redeploy that liquidity into emerging leadership sectors: specifically, biotechnology, specialized industrial engineering, and selected financial service providers showing strong institutional block buying.

4. ETF Opportunities

  • Small-Cap & Mid-Cap Core: IJR, IWM, MDY, VXF

  • Thematic Growth & Cyclicals: XBI (Biotech), XTN (Transportation), MTUM (Momentum)

  • Value & Cyclical Overlays: VTV (Large Cap Value), VOE (Mid Cap Value), SCHD (Dividend Equity)

  • Defensive Leaders: XHS (Health Care Services), XPH (Pharmaceuticals), XLV (Health Care Select)

5. Top 7 ETFs to Research

  1. IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Small-Cap Equities

    • Reasoning: Leading the entire market expansion with an explosive oscillator score of 12.00, confirming an aggressive institutional rotation into small-cap names as breadth expands.

  2. XBI (SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Biotechnology

    • Reasoning: Displays exceptional relative strength in the early-to-mid-cycle rotation framework, benefiting directly from the broader risk-on appetite away from mega-cap tech.

  3. XHS (SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Health Care Services

    • Reasoning: Commands a powerful combination of a strong oscillator (18.00) and high trend ranking, serving as an ideal late-cycle defensive growth play that acts as a hedge to cyclical exposures.

  4. MTUM (iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Momentum Factor

    • Reasoning: Sits in the top tier of the strong uptrend list with an oscillator of 17.00, effectively pivoting away from tech components and capturing the newly emerging leaders in financials and industrials.

  5. MDY (SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Mid-Cap Equities

    • Reasoning: A major beneficiary of the expanding median market cap trend, establishing a reliable, high-velocity uptrend line backed by an oscillator score of 5.00.

  6. XPH (SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Pharmaceuticals

    • Reasoning: Captures high-quality fundamental leadership while benefiting from a strong upward-trending oscillator, making it a reliable cash-flow destination during active sector rotations.

  7. KBE (SPDR S&P Bank ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Banking & Financials

    • Reasoning: Showing a notable resurgence in trend strength as small-and-medium-sized financial institutions catch a strong bid from thawing macro liquidity and steepening curves.

Stats for 2026-06-26 (4th week of the Month)

List creation date: 2026-06-26

Median MarketCap: 10753

70.4% stocks on Nasdaq; 29.6% stocks on NYSE/Amex

Sector
Information Technology39%
Financials18%
Health Care17%
Industrials17%
Consumer Staples4%
Energy2%
Consumer Discretionary2%
Real Estate2%
Industry
Semiconductors & Semi22%
Banks11%
Aerospace & Defense9%
Pharmaceuticals7%
Electronic Equipment,7%
Software6%
Biotechnology6%
Health Care Providers4%
Communications Equipm4%
Financial Services4%
Consumer Finance2%
Capital Markets2%
Energy Equipment & Se2%
Construction & Engine2%
Electrical Equipment2%
Machinery2%
Commercial Services &2%
Hotels, Restaurants &2%
Consumer Staples Dist2%
Beverages2%
Office REITs2%
Country
United States91%
Taiwan4%
Canada4%
Netherlands2%
GPASym(0gpaamp5) IndustrySectorMktCapCountryName
3.96TSM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 1947107TaiwanTaiwan Semiconductor Manufactu
3.96MU Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 1368573USMicron Technology,
3.96ASML Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 696940NetherlandsASML Holding N.V.
3.96ASX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 88373TaiwanASE Technology Holding, Lt
3.96TER Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 73882USTeradyne,
3.92AMD Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 868409USAdvanced Micro Devices,
3.92LRCX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 502504USLam Research
3.92ALAB Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 68220USAstera Labs,
3.92AMKR Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 21223USAmkor Technology,
3.88KLAC Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 338064USKLA
3.88MKSI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 27714USMKS
3.80AMAT Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 530467USApplied Materials,
3.96KN Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 3490USKnowles
3.92GLW Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 196234USCorning
3.88TTMI Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 21866USTTM Technologies,
3.88CGNX Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 11074USCognex
3.96FTNT Software Information Technology 109846USFortinet,
3.88PANW Software Information Technology 238868USPalo Alto Networks,
3.84APPS Software Information Technology 1226USDigital Turbine,
3.96DGII Communications Equipm Information Technology 2608USDigi International
3.80EXTR Communications Equipm Information Technology 4049USExtreme Networks,
3.96BMO Banks Financials 121996CanadaBank of Montreal
3.96UMBF Banks Financials 10896USUMB Financial
3.96CARE Banks Financials 726USCarter Bankshares,
3.84BUSE Banks Financials 2487USFirst Busey
3.80RY Banks Financials 282354CanadaRoyal Bank of Canada
3.80KRNY Banks Financials 574USKearny Financial.
3.96PAYS Financial Services Financials 432USPaysign,
3.92SEZL Financial Services Financials 5506USSezzle
3.96DAVE Consumer Finance Financials 4104USDave
3.96VIRT Capital Markets Financials 5313USVirtu Financial,
3.92HWM Aerospace & Defense Industrials 109285USHowmet Aerospace
3.92AIR Aerospace & Defense Industrials 5434USAAR.
3.88WWD Aerospace & Defense Industrials 26004USWoodward,
3.84CRS Aerospace & Defense Industrials 29774USCarpenter Technologyorati
3.84ATRO Aerospace & Defense Industrials 3750USAstronics
3.96AGX Construction & Engine Industrials 10558USArgan,
3.92VICR Electrical Equipment Industrials 15114USVicor
3.80ESE Machinery Industrials 9195USESCO Technologies
3.96CXW Commercial Services & Industrials 2905USCoreCivic,
3.96LQDA Pharmaceuticals Health Care 6840USLiquidia
3.92ETON Pharmaceuticals Health Care 954USEton Pharmaceuticals,
3.88RPRX Pharmaceuticals Health Care 24243USRoyalty Pharma plc
3.80LGND Pharmaceuticals Health Care 5931USLigand Pharmaceuticalsorpo
3.96NBIX Biotechnology Health Care 16508USNeurocrine Biosciences,
3.96KRYS Biotechnology Health Care 10611USKrystal Biotech,
3.96VCYT Biotechnology Health Care 4672USVeracyte,
3.88ASTH Health Care Providers Health Care 2157USAstrana Health,
3.80AMN Health Care Providers Health Care 1254USAMN Healthcare Services,
3.88CHEF Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 3848USThe Chefs' Warehouse,
3.92MNST Beverages Consumer Staples 93723USMonster Beverage
3.96NESR Energy Equipment & Se Energy 2721USNational Energy Services Reuni
3.96RSI Hotels, Restaurants & Consumer Discretionary 3161USRush Street Interactive,
3.80PSTL Office REITs Real Estate 673USPostal Realty Trust,

0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).

% AllocSymName_currentListSymActionSectorsharesHldDlrHldallocHldPrice
6% AMATAPPLIED MATERIALS INC AMAT Information Technology1$626.85.1%$626.84
5% AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD Information Technology1$521.64.2%$521.58
5% ANETArista Networks IncANET Information Technology4$630.45.1%$157.6
6% APHAMPHENOL CORP CL A APH Information Technology4$654.95.3%$163.72
5% ARMArvinMeritor, Inc.ARM Information Technology2$668.55.4%$334.27
5% ASMLA S M L Holding N.V. NYASML Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1794.62
5% BMOBANK OF MONTREAL QUEBEC BMO Financials4$700.45.7%$175.1
5% GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl CGOOG Communication Services2$669.45.4%$334.69
5% GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl AGOOGL Communication Services2$674.85.5%$337.39
5%*KLACK L A TENCOR CORP KLAC Information Technology2$497.34.0%$248.64
5% LRCXLAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX Information Technology2$758.26.1%$379.09
5% MSMORGAN STANLEY MS Financials3$636.15.1%$212.03
6% MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU Information Technology1$1,132.39.1%$1132.33
5% SCCOSOUTHERN COPPER CORP SCCO Materials3$513.84.2%$171.26
5% STXSEAGATE TECHNOLOGY STX Information Technology1$899.97.3%$899.9
5% TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADRTSM Information Technology1$432.43.5%$432.35
5% WDCWESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC Information Technology1$586.54.7%$586.45
0% ADIANALOG DEVICES ADIadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$386.91
0% RYROYAL BANK OF CANADA RYadded Financials0$0.00.0%$202.85
0%*GSGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GSadded Financials0$0.00.0%$1019.61
0%*HWMHowmet Aerospace IncHWMadded Industrials0$0.00.0%$268.87
0% DELLDell Technologies IncDELLadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$399.49
0% GLWCORNING INC GLWadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$221.05
6% LLYLILLY ELI & CO removed Health Care1$1,208.19.8%$1208.12
5% CSCOCISCO SYSTEMS INC removed Information Technology5$568.94.6%$113.77
These selected ETFs are ideas in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-06-26
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-06-26
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-06-26
growth5.250QQQGrowth 2026-06-26
growth5.003UPROSP500 2026-06-26
growth4.502VTVLarge cap Value* 2026-06-26
growth4.501VOTMid Cap Growth* 2026-06-26
cyclical5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-06-26
cyclical4.506XPHPharmaceuticals*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-06-26
cyclical5.001IWMSmall Cap 2026-06-26
cyclical5.002VXFExtended Market 2026-06-26
cyclical5.003IJRSmall Cap 2026-06-26
cyclical4.505IEMGEmerging Market 2026-06-26
cyclical5.253XBIBiotechEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-06-26
cyclical5.007EEMEmerging Markets 2026-06-26
cyclical5.257TQQQGrowth 2026-06-26
cyclical5.254XTNTransportationMid to Late cycle2026-06-26
cyclical5.254XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-06-26
These selected ETFs are early signal in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.252VTVLarge cap Value* 2026-06-26
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-06-26
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-06-26
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-06-26
cyclical5.253XBIBiotechEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-06-26
cyclical5.254XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-06-26
cyclical5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-06-26
cyclical5.252VXFExtended Market 2026-06-26
cyclical5.251IWMSmall Cap 2026-06-26
These selected stocks are ideas in the current market environment. Weekly and Monthly Fract better than SPY. * means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY.
#%AllocShareSymNameIndustryDateGPAVer
233.331.8*FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. Construction & Engineering2026-06-263.882,3,4
333.3313.4*KLACKLA Corporation Semiconductors & Semiconducto2026-06-263.882,3,4
133.3420.4 APHAmphenol Corporation Electronic Equipment, Instrum2026-06-263.882,3,4
These stocks are from S&P500 which have a stong Oscillator. Spy Osc=1
SymbolBoundOscMax
Fract		Percent
tile		Draw
Down		Draw
Down
7yr		cagr
7Yr		Namecagr
By
dd		score
ADI 0.51191.299-28-2119.55Analog Devices Inc.939.7
JBL 0.47191.099-47-3042.02Jabil Inc.1408.9
TRGP 0.7091.188-85-6132.38Targa Resources Corp.536.3
GS 0.5581.199-49-2926.47The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.914.4
LLY*0.4891.274-35-2140.58Eli Lilly and Company1934.3
CDNS 0.4681.630-49-2327.25Cadence Design Systems Inc.1183.7
CAH 0.6551.097-48-2126.61Cardinal Health Inc.1263.3
WAB 0.6241.085-44-2421.58Westinghouse Air Brake Technol892.5
HLT 0.7231.171-31-3119.70Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.632.2
SPY 1.0011.095-33-1914.05SNP500731.0
WMB 0.4721.297-68-3316.04The Williams Companies Inc.480.9
FTNT 0.75470.941-36-3239.06Fortinet Inc.12235.3
AMD*0.40790.977-77-5550.43Advanced Micro Devices Inc.9131.6
FLEX 0.46670.999-59-2747.87Flex Ltd.17730.8
INTC*0.211260.399-65-7015.02Intel Corporation2126.5
MU*0.241060.999-61-4463.00Micron Technology Inc.14325.4
PANW 0.49370.854-36-2737.19Palo Alto Networks Inc.13718.1
KLAC 0.23521.399-37-2854.78KLA Corporation19512.0
CAT 0.35310.999-46-2633.05Caterpillar Inc.12710.9
GWW 0.74120.860-28-2126.14W.W. Grainger Inc.1248.9
ODFL 0.27180.819-33-3524.26Old Dominion Freight Line Inc694.9
PWR 0.44111.199-47-2251.40Quanta Services Inc.2334.8
FIX 0.3471.599-37-3267.50Comfort Systems USA Inc.2102.4
CASY 0.2491.999-21-1726.25Casey's General Stores Inc.1542.2
LIN 0.6830.89-20-1814.56Linde plc802.0
GEV 0.2151.296-25-25146.32GE Vernova Inc.5851.1
APH 0.2341.198-34-2331.67Amphenol Corporation1370.9
GOOGL*0.4221.098-30-3429.91Alphabet Inc.870.8
AAPL*0.4121.137-37-2328.17Apple Inc.1220.8
GOOG*0.4311.199-34-3429.77Alphabet Inc.870.4
HUBB 0.3900.973-24-2022.14Hubbell Incorporated1100.0
ANET 0.24-30.973-37-3338.70Arista Networks Inc.117-0.7
HWM 0.29-41.781-15-1562.22Howmet Aerospace Inc.414-1.2
JPM*0.66-21.192-34-3417.18JPMorgan Chase & Co.50-1.3
TJX 0.50-31.481-23-2116.66The TJX Companies Inc.79-1.5
AMZN*0.38-60.827-39-4713.67Amazon.com Inc.29-2.3
RTX 0.51-50.947-22-2216.19RTX Corporation73-2.6
EME 0.39-71.293-36-3037.75EMCOR Group Inc.125-2.7
TSLA*0.30-100.552-53-5859.25Tesla Inc.102-3.0
AVGO*0.20-161.392-23-2644.21Broadcom Inc.170-3.2
COST 0.47-91.248-26-2020.09Costco Wholesale Corporation100-4.2
MSFT*0.24-201.231-30-2915.76Microsoft Corporation54-4.8
WMT*0.63-91.397-24-1717.81Walmart Inc.104-5.7
NVDA*0.36-161.162-58-5274.03NVIDIA Corporation142-5.8
META*0.27-300.912-30-30106.13Meta Platforms Inc.353-8.1
ORLY 0.77-141.025-21-1720.31O'Reilly Automotive Inc.119-10.8
EXE 0.49-460.467-60-2442.69Expand Energy Corporation177-22.5

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