Friday, July 10, 2026

Stats for 2026-07-10 (2nd week of the Month)

1. Market Trend Analysis

The market is undergoing a highly sophisticated sector rotation, transitioning into a Mid-Trend expansion. While the cap-weighted market appears stable on the surface—with the S&P 500 ($SPY$) holding a modest short-term oscillator of 4.00 and the Nasdaq ($QQQ$) at 7.00—market internals reveal an aggressive migration of capital. This multi-week shift is highlighted by the contrast between long-term underperformance and short-term acceleration: several prominent cyclical and defensive ETFs carry a 6-month negative growth marker (*) but have recently exploded to the top of the oscillator leaderboards.

This broadening of market breadth is supported by a solid median market cap of 6,392, indicating that mid-cap and small-cap segments are actively absorbing institutional flows. Exchange distribution remains tilted toward the Nasdaq at 65.6% (compared to 34.4% on the NYSE/Amex), though this dominance is no longer driven by mega-cap software, but rather by biotechnology breakouts and specific semiconductor hardware lines.

The Gross Profitability to Assets (GPA) metrics remain clustered at an exceptional 3.80 to 3.96 range across leading Financials, Tech, and Healthcare components. This concentration of high-fundamental quality inside rotating sectors proves that the current rally is structurally sound and backed by earnings, rather than purely speculative.

Mega-Cap Leadership Check

An analysis of the top S&P 500 heavyweights reveals a clear leadership breakdown among the market's traditional drivers. The majority of mega-caps have rolled over into deeply negative short-term oscillator territory:

  • Microsoft ($MSFT$): -18

  • Meta ($META$): -18

  • Nvidia ($NVDA$): -11

  • Broadcom ($AVGO$): -11

  • Tesla ($TSLA$): -6

  • Amazon ($AMZN$): -3

Only Apple ($AAPL$ at +7) and Alphabet ($GOOG$/$GOOGL$ at +3/+2) remain positive alongside selective financial counterweights like Goldman Sachs ($GS$ at +7). Because the majority of mega-caps are not participating, cap-weighted indices are hitting near-term friction. However, this lack of large-cap participation highlights a healthy, broad-market rotation into cyclicals and value rather than systemic risk, preventing a broader market collapse.

Market Cycle Stage: Mid-Trend (Rotational Expansion)
Current Risk Level: Medium

2. Economic Outlook

The underlying market data points to a transitional economic regime consistent with a soft landing or a late-cycle reacceleration. The rapid short-term momentum in economically sensitive sectors like Transportation ($XTN$, oscillator 15.00) and Banks ($KBE$, oscillator 7.00)—both of which are reversing multi-month negative baselines—suggests that forward-looking corporate health is stabilizing. Market sentiment is distinctly transitional and highly discerning; liquidity is abundant but risk appetite has pivoted away from over-extended, high-multiple mega-caps. Instead, institutional capital is seeking out relative value in spaces that stand to benefit from steadying interest rate expectations and resilient consumer patterns.

3. Investment Ideas

Tactical asset allocation must pivot away from standard, cap-weighted passive indexing toward equal-weight strategies, small/mid-caps, and select value plays. Capital is actively flowing out of mega-cap software and platforms into a barbell arrangement of high-momentum cyclicals and defensive growth. The current style preference heavily favors mid/small-caps over mega-caps, with a strong tactical tilt toward value configurations in Financials (specifically Capital Markets and Banks) and Healthcare Services. Within the technology space, exposure should be strictly isolated to high-GPA semiconductor infrastructure firms ($SMH$, oscillator 25.00) and cybersecurity providers ($FTNT$, oscillator 4) that show standalone momentum insulated from the broader mega-cap slowdown.

4. ETF Opportunities

  • Broad Market Breadth & Value: $IJR$ (Small Cap), $MDY$ (Mid-Cap S&P 400), $RSP$ (S&P 500 Equal Weight), $VTV$ (Large Cap Value).

  • High-Velocity Cyclicals: $XTN$ (Transportation), $XLF$ (Financial Select), $KBE$ (Bank), $XBI$ (Biotech).

  • Defensive Growth & Late Cycle: $XPH$ (Pharmaceuticals), $XHS$ (Health Care Services), $VHT$ (Health), $XLV$ (Health Care Select).

  • Targeted Momentum & Tech: $SMH$ (Semiconductors), $MTUM$ (BlackRock Momentum), $XSD$ (Semiconductor).

5. Top 7 ETFs to Invest In Now

  1. SMH (Semiconductors)

    • Reasoning: Commands the highest short-term oscillator at 25.00, demonstrating that structural semiconductor demand remains the market's primary growth engine despite the mega-cap tech cooldown.

  2. XPH (Pharmaceuticals)

    • Reasoning: Registers a powerful oscillator of 20.00, signaling an aggressive trend reversal and institutional accumulation in a defensive, low-volatility sector.

  3. XHS (Health Care Services)

    • Reasoning: Holds a strong oscillator of 18.00, providing excellent defensive-growth positioning that excels in late-cycle economic environments.

  4. XTN (Transportation)

    • Reasoning: Boasts an oscillator of 15.00, indicating an early cyclical reacceleration as industrial supply chains and freight metrics strengthen.

  5. MTUM (BlackRock Momentum)

    • Reasoning: Displays a strong oscillator of 14.00, making it an ideal tactical vehicle to automatically capture the rapid cross-sector leadership shifts currently occurring.

  6. IJR (Small Cap)

    • Reasoning: Posts a robust oscillator of 10.00, confirming its role as the primary beneficiary of the active small-cap risk-on rotation as market breadth expands.

  7. KBE (Bank)

    • Reasoning: Features an improving oscillator of 7.00, capitalizing on the 34% financial sector dominance on the high-GPA leaderboard as credit conditions stabilize.

Stats for 2026-07-10 (2nd week of the Month)

List creation date: 2026-07-10

Median MarketCap: 6392

65.6% stocks on Nasdaq; 34.4% stocks on NYSE/Amex

Sector
Financials34%
Information Technology28%
Health Care16%
Industrials7%
Consumer Discretionary7%
Consumer Staples3%
Energy3%
Real Estate2%
Industry
Semiconductors & Semi13%
Banks11%
Capital Markets8%
Financial Services7%
Biotechnology7%
Pharmaceuticals7%
Consumer Finance5%
Software5%
Communications Equipm5%
Aerospace & Defense5%
Hotels, Restaurants &3%
Technology Hardware, 3%
Insurance3%
Office REITs2%
Electronic Equipment,2%
Life Sciences Tools &2%
Diversified Consumer 2%
Consumer Staples Dist2%
Beverages2%
Health Care Providers2%
Commercial Services &2%
Textiles, Apparel & L2%
Energy Equipment & Se2%
Oil, Gas & Consumable2%
Country
United States85%
Canada5%
Taiwan3%
United Kingdom2%
Cayman Islands2%
Netherlands2%
Bermuda2%
GPASym(0gpaamp5) IndustrySectorMktCapCountryName
3.96BMO Banks Financials 123821CanadaBank of Montreal
3.96UMBF Banks Financials 10919USUMB Financial
3.96CARE Banks Financials 719USCarter Bankshares,
3.88RY Banks Financials 290022CanadaRoyal Bank of Canada
3.84KRNY Banks Financials 591USKearny Financial.
3.80CM Banks Financials 105300CanadaCanadian Imperial Bank of Comm
3.80CLBK Banks Financials 2205USColumbia Financial,
3.96VIRT Capital Markets Financials 5815USVirtu Financial,
3.96VCTR Capital Markets Financials 5591USVictory Capital Holdings,
3.92AAMI Capital Markets Financials 2864USAcadian Asset Management
3.84MS Capital Markets Financials 350362USMorgan Stanley
3.80IBKR Capital Markets Financials 42446USInteractive Brokers Group,
3.96PAYS Financial Services Financials 491USPaysign,
3.92SEZL Financial Services Financials 5955USSezzle
3.92MQ Financial Services Financials 1644USMarqeta,
3.80AFRM Financial Services Financials 28058USAffirm Holdings,
3.96ENVA Consumer Finance Financials 5897USEnova International,
3.96DAVE Consumer Finance Financials 4960USDave
3.92ECPG Consumer Finance Financials 1970USEncore Capital Group,
3.92SKWD Insurance Financials 2437USSkyward Specialty Insurance Gr
3.80AIZ Insurance Financials 13834USAssurant,
3.96AMD Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 891482USAdvanced Micro Devices,
3.96ASML Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 705114NetherlandsASML Holding N.V.
3.96ASX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 92470TaiwanASE Technology Holding, Lt
3.96PENG Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 4171USPenguin Solutions,
3.92TSM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 1949226TaiwanTaiwan Semiconductor Manufactu
3.92ALAB Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 71554USAstera Labs,
3.88CRDO Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 49538Cayman IslandsCredo Technology Group Holding
3.80AMAT Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 467372USApplied Materials,
3.96FTNT Software Information Technology 119957USFortinet,
3.84PANW Software Information Technology 275723USPalo Alto Networks,
3.84DDOG Software Information Technology 95753USDatadog,
3.96ANET Communications Equipm Information Technology 232562USArista Networks,
3.92DGII Communications Equipm Information Technology 2728USDigi International
3.80EXTR Communications Equipm Information Technology 4299USExtreme Networks,
3.92DELL Technology Hardware, Information Technology 290906USDell Technologies
3.92NTAP Technology Hardware, Information Technology 33645USNetApp,
3.80CGNX Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 10944USCognex
3.96NBIX Biotechnology Health Care 18154USNeurocrine Biosciences,
3.96KRYS Biotechnology Health Care 10944USKrystal Biotech,
3.96VCYT Biotechnology Health Care 4732USVeracyte,
3.88KNSA Biotechnology Health Care 5030United KingdomKiniksa Pharmaceuticals Intern
3.96LQDA Pharmaceuticals Health Care 7243USLiquidia
3.92ETON Pharmaceuticals Health Care 1023USEton Pharmaceuticals,
3.88RPRX Pharmaceuticals Health Care 25692USRoyalty Pharma plc
3.84LGND Pharmaceuticals Health Care 6392USLigand Pharmaceuticalsorpo
3.88ASTH Health Care Providers Health Care 2321USAstrana Health,
3.84BLFS Life Sciences Tools & Health Care 1379USBioLife Solutions,
3.96HWM Aerospace & Defense Industrials 109537USHowmet Aerospace
3.92AIR Aerospace & Defense Industrials 5357USAAR.
3.84CRS Aerospace & Defense Industrials 29361USCarpenter Technologyorati
3.96CXW Commercial Services & Industrials 3093USCoreCivic,
3.96RSI Hotels, Restaurants & Consumer Discretionary 3397USRush Street Interactive,
3.84BROS Hotels, Restaurants & Consumer Discretionary 9005USDutch Bros
3.84KTB Textiles, Apparel & L Consumer Discretionary 4652USKontoor Brands,
3.84LINC Diversified Consumer Consumer Discretionary 1735USLincoln Edual Services C
3.92NESR Energy Equipment & Se Energy 2812USNational Energy Services Reuni
3.80DHT Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 2726BermudaDHT Holdings,
3.88CHEF Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 3958USThe Chefs' Warehouse,
3.92MNST Beverages Consumer Staples 94427USMonster Beverage
3.80PSTL Office REITs Real Estate 670USPostal Realty Trust,

0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).

% AllocSymName_currentListSymActionSectorsharesHldDlrHldallocHldPrice
6% AMATAPPLIED MATERIALS INC AMAT Information Technology1$602.54.9%$602.5
6% AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD Information Technology1$557.94.5%$557.89
6% ANETArista Networks IncANET Information Technology4$747.86.0%$186.96
5% APHAMPHENOL CORP CL A APH Information Technology4$636.25.1%$159.06
4% ARMArvinMeritor, Inc.ARM Information Technology2$646.85.2%$323.39
5% ASMLA S M L Holding N.V. NYASML Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1797.32
6% BMOBANK OF MONTREAL QUEBEC BMO Financials4$715.85.8%$178.96
5% GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl CGOOG Communication Services2$710.15.7%$355.03
5% GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl AGOOGL Communication Services2$714.45.8%$357.18
5%*KLACK L A TENCOR CORP KLAC Information Technology2$463.03.7%$231.52
5% LRCXLAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX Information Technology2$700.75.7%$350.33
5% MSMORGAN STANLEY MS Financials3$666.85.4%$222.28
5% MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU Information Technology1$979.37.9%$979.3
5% SCCOSOUTHERN COPPER CORP SCCO Materials3$527.54.3%$175.83
5% STXSEAGATE TECHNOLOGY STX Information Technology1$910.37.3%$910.34
5% TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADRTSM Information Technology1$434.13.5%$434.11
5% WDCWESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC Information Technology1$582.64.7%$582.59
0% ADIANALOG DEVICES ADIadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$395.65
0% RYROYAL BANK OF CANADA RYadded Financials0$0.00.0%$211.09
0%*GSGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GSadded Financials0$0.00.0%$1055.18
0%*HWMHowmet Aerospace IncHWMadded Industrials0$0.00.0%$270.85
0% DELLDell Technologies IncDELLadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$434.97
0% GLWCORNING INC GLWadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$190.89
5% LLYLILLY ELI & CO removed Health Care1$1,188.69.6%$1188.58
5% CSCOCISCO SYSTEMS INC removed Information Technology5$606.64.9%$121.31
These selected ETFs are ideas in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-07-10
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-07-10
growth5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-07-10
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-07-10
growth5.007KIEInsurance* 2026-07-10
growth4.501VHTHealth*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
growth4.502XLVHealth Care Select*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
cyclical4.505XRTRetail*Mid to Early Cycle2026-07-10
cyclical4.505XHEHealth Care Equipment*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
cyclical5.254XTNTransportationMid to Late cycle2026-07-10
cyclical5.253XBIBiotechEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-07-10
cyclical5.253XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
cyclical5.253IJRSmall Cap 2026-07-10
cyclical5.252VXFExtended Market 2026-07-10
cyclical5.001IWMSmall Cap 2026-07-10
cyclical5.007XPHPharmaceuticals*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
cyclical5.006TQQQGrowth+ 2026-07-10
cyclical5.007KBEBank* 2026-07-10
These selected ETFs are early signal in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.251VHTHealth*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
growth5.253VFHFinancials*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-10
growth5.253XLVHealth Care Select*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-07-10
cyclical5.252VXFExtended Market 2026-07-10
cyclical5.253XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
cyclical5.257XPHPharmaceuticals*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-10
cyclical5.259XLFFinancial Select*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-10
cyclical5.253XBIBiotechEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-07-10
These selected stocks are ideas in the current market environment. Weekly and Monthly Fract better than SPY. * means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY.
#%AllocShareSymNameIndustryDateGPAVer
1100.0043.2*KLACKLA Corporation Semiconductors & Semiconducto2026-07-103.802,3,4
These stocks are from S&P500 which have a stong Oscillator. Spy Osc=4
SymbolBoundOscMax
Fract		Percent
tile		Draw
Down		Draw
Down
7yr		cagr
7Yr		Namecagr
By
dd		score
SPY 1.0041.095-33-1914.17SNP500744.0
TRGP 0.6361.289-85-6130.84Targa Resources Corp.503.8
GS 0.5371.299-49-2926.29The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.903.7
CAH 0.6651.098-48-2125.74Cardinal Health Inc.1223.3
HLT 0.6931.171-31-3119.01Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.612.1
AMD*0.34710.979-77-5549.27Advanced Micro Devices Inc.8924.1
FTNT 0.41430.944-36-3238.38Fortinet Inc.11917.6
MU*0.20611.099-61-4456.34Micron Technology Inc.12812.2
FLEX 0.26410.999-59-2745.77Flex Ltd.16910.7
GWW 0.72120.863-28-2126.97W.W. Grainger Inc.1288.6
PANW 0.23370.856-36-2737.11Palo Alto Networks Inc.1378.5
KLAC 0.21361.399-37-2852.70KLA Corporation1887.6
ODFL 0.22170.819-33-3525.08Old Dominion Freight Line Inc713.7
AAPL*0.3871.138-36-2329.80Apple Inc.1292.7
LIN 0.5450.811-20-1814.79Linde plc822.7
LLY*0.4161.274-35-2139.69Eli Lilly and Company1892.5
JBL 0.3081.099-47-3040.32Jabil Inc.1342.4
CASY 0.24101.999-21-1726.65Casey's General Stores Inc.1562.4
ANET 0.1880.976-37-3340.97Arista Networks Inc.1241.4
GOOG*0.4331.198-34-3429.85Alphabet Inc.871.3
PWR 0.3231.199-47-2250.55Quanta Services Inc.2291.0
GOOGL*0.4221.097-30-3429.96Alphabet Inc.880.8
GEV 0.1731.296-25-25147.13GE Vernova Inc.5880.5
APH 0.2311.196-34-2330.73Amphenol Corporation1330.2
JPM*0.6501.191-34-3416.86JPMorgan Chase & Co.490.0
FIX 0.24-31.598-37-3265.20Comfort Systems USA Inc.203-0.7
AMZN*0.38-30.824-39-4713.54Amazon.com Inc.28-1.1
HWM 0.27-51.780-15-1561.91Howmet Aerospace Inc.412-1.4
RTX 0.36-40.947-22-2216.42RTX Corporation74-1.4
V*0.48-31.029-27-219.98Visa Inc.47-1.4
HUBB 0.38-40.970-24-2021.39Hubbell Incorporated106-1.5
TSLA*0.30-60.552-53-5858.92Tesla Inc.101-1.8
AVGO*0.18-111.290-23-2646.63Broadcom Inc.179-2.0
EME 0.34-101.189-36-3036.87EMCOR Group Inc.122-3.4
NVDA*0.32-111.061-58-5276.20NVIDIA Corporation146-3.5
META*0.23-180.912-30-30113.10Meta Platforms Inc.377-4.1
MSFT*0.23-181.230-30-2915.81Microsoft Corporation54-4.1
COST 0.42-121.238-26-2018.98Costco Wholesale Corporation94-5.0
WMT*0.45-111.392-24-1717.13Walmart Inc.100-5.0
ORLY 0.61-161.019-21-1718.73O'Reilly Automotive Inc.110-9.8

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