Year End Commentary

Year End Commentary - December 27th
The last week of the year usually has a bias to the upside, but with the market up so much since the election, I would be surprise if it rallied much further in these last days of December.  On the other hand, I don't think there will be much selling in this last  week because most investors want to move their gains into 2017 and have the possibility of a lower tax rate.  The Summation index doesn't seem to have much momentum to break through the 1000 level.  If it turns down from there, the market could have a tough January.   One stock I want to highlight is Nvidia.  It is on the list of top stocks on this site.  Nvidia looks like it is making a climatic move.  The stock is up almost 30% in the 10 days. You add that on to what the stock has done over the last year and you what fits the description of a climatic price move. Sometimes there is a rush at the end of a rally to the strongest couple of stocks in the market.  That seems to occurring in Nvidia.  Keep a close eye on its price action.  If it tops, it could give an indication of where the market is going in the near future.

Stock Lists and Charts updated for week ending 12/23/2016

Stock Lists, Stocks Grades and charts have been updated as of 12/23/2016.

Check out the site Quan0cracy at http://quantocracy.com/. It is a mashup on quantitative trading links.

Reminder: A new chart was added to the Model Lists of Growth Stock Ideas Tab. The chart is under the heading “+ Click here to see the Relative Strength Chart of the Index”. It shows the Relative Strength of the GPA38 Index compared to the S&P500. If you click on the heading it will expand to show you the chart.

Reminder: A new chart was added to the Summation Index tab. It shows the Summation Index for 5 months, so the recent movement of the Summation Index and the oscillator can be seen more clearly. It is called the “Short term Adjusted Summation Index”. The chart can be hidden or expanded by clicking on its title.

Stock Lists and charts updated

Stock Lists, Stocks Grades and charts have been updated as of 12/16/2016.

A new chart has been added to the Model Lists of Growth Stock Ideas Tab. The chart is under the heading “+ Click here to see the Relative Strength Chart of the Index”. It shows the Relative Strength of the GPA38 Index compared to the S&P500. If you click on the heading it will expand to show you the chart.

Reminder: A new chart was added to the Summation Index tab. It shows the Summation Index for 5 months, so the recent movement of the Summation Index and the oscillator can be seen more clearly. It is called the “Short term Adjusted Summation Index”. The chart can be hidden or expanded by clicking on its title.

Critical Juncture

Critical Juncture - December 14, 2016
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter of a point today and the markets were down, but it could have been a lot worse.  With indications that they could raise rates faster than most were expecting, the market could have really been hit.  The DJIA gave up 118.
The market is at a critical juncture as measured by the Summation Index.  The Summation Index measures liquidity in the markets by tracking the number of advances vs. declines.  If you look at the Summation Index currently, it is approaching the 1000 level.  If it can't get through the 1000 level and starts to fall from here, the markets could suffer some tougher times.  If you study the Summation Index, the best performance in the markets occurs when the Summation is above 1000.  Between 0 and 1000, the markets are more neutral and below 0 there are declining markets. There are just 11 trading days left in 2016.  Many may want to carry gains into the new year and possibly pay lower taxes.  That might keep the markets from a substantial pullback until January.   The key is to watch those critical levels on the Summation Index.

Market Powers Higher

Market Powers Higher - December 7th

Defying many, the market does not quit.  The Dow, NASDQ and the S&P 500 are all up more than 1% today.  We might see some stalling at these levels because this is one of the largest price moves since the election when the rally began.  If you are invested, enjoy the ride and if not you will have to look for pullbacks on some of the stronger stocks.  Check the model lists for names that could be buy candidates. The Steel Group continues to lead but there are many other groups that are also being pulled higher.  

Stock Lists, Stocks Grades and charts have been updated as of 12/2/2016.

Stock Lists, Stocks Grades and charts have been updated as of 12/2/2016.

A new chart has been added to the Summation Index tab. It shows the Summation Index for 5 months, so the recent movement of the Summation Index and the oscillator can be seen more clearly. It is called the “Short term Adjusted Summation Index”. The chart can be hidden or expanded by clicking on its title.

Another chart has been added to "Model Lists of Growth Stock Ideas” tab. It shows Relative strength of the “Final Growth GPA 3.8” index. This reveals if growth stocks are working in the current market environment.

When the Relative Strength line is going up the “Final Growth GPA 3.8” index is stronger than the market (SPY). Growth stocks and the market do not move in lockstep all the time. The market index includes value stocks as well, so when growth stocks are not working and value stocks are working the two indices are not in sync.

In the current market environment value stocks are doing better than growth stocks. This can be inferred from the Relative strength chart of the “Final Growth GPA 3.8” index and from the growth vs value chart. Also in “Sector ETF Analysis” we see only value type of sectors showing strength. There are no growth sectors showing up.