Saturday, August 1, 2026

Stats for 2026-07-31 (5th week of the Month)

1. Market Trend Analysis

Multi-Week Trend Analysis & Market Breadth

The weekly internal data reveals a defensive rotation within market breadth. Momentum has sharply bifurcated: high-beta growth sectors (Tech, Semiconductors, Growth) are breaking down into severe negative oscillator territory (e.g., XLK, QQQ, SMH sitting near ranks 52 to 68). Concurrently, broad participation has rotated toward lower-beta, value, and defensive pockets of the market, led by Small-Cap Value (IJR, VBR), Regional Banking (KBE), Health Care Equipment/Services (XHS, XHE), and High Dividend/Cash Flow strategies (SCHD, COWZ).

The exchange distribution reflects a distinct shift away from high-concentration Nasdaq tech toward broader NYSE/Amex value listings. Market breadth shows 53.3% Nasdaq concentration vs. 46.7% NYSE/Amex, but capital is consolidating heavily inside value, financial, and healthcare industries. The Median Market Cap stands at $11,068M (mid-cap scale), reflecting a steady risk distribution into equal-weighted strategies (RSP) and mid/small-cap value assets rather than a classic risk-off flight to cash. 

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                        CURRENT MARKET REGIME                            |
|  Trend Phase: Late Mid-Trend Expansion / Defensive Rotation             |
|  Risk Level: Medium-High (High-beta breakdown, strong defensive breadth)|
+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Oscillator Interpretation

While broad indices (SPY, VTI) display compressed, neutral oscillator values (1.00 to 2.00), underlying sector oscillators reveal powerful divergence:

  • Strong Upward Momentum (High Positive): Healthcare Services (XHS at +19.00), Pharmaceuticals (XPH at +22.00), Transportation (XTN at +11.00), and Small Cap (IJR at +10.00) demonstrate robust, accelerating thrusts.

  • Basing & Early Reversals: Banking (KBE at +8.00) and US Dividend Equity (SCHD at +7.00) are expanding from deeply oversold levels, confirming institutional accumulation.

  • Exhaustion & Breakdown: Mega-cap tech and high-growth sectors (QQQ, XLK, SMH) are experiencing severe oscillator compression and breakdown.

GPA (Gross Profitability Asset) Insights

Top-ranking GPA holdings display strong balance sheet resilience and quality factor dominance. Leadership in high-GPA stocks is currently concentrated in Financials (BMO, STT, CPAY, VCTR), Software/Cybersecurity (ANET, FTNT, CRWD), and Energy/Aerospace (HWM, DINO). The elevated GPA profile across active leaders indicates that institutions are paying up for tangible cash flows and balance sheet strength while dumping speculative growth.

Mega-Cap Leadership Check (Critical Signal)

  • Oscillator Status: Majority Negative / Transitioning Negative. Mega-cap tech giants (Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia) and pure-play tech/semiconductor ETFs (XLK, SMH, QQQ) are flashing negative or severely depressed oscillator readings.

  • Market Impact: Leadership Breakdown & Rotation. Mega caps are no longer providing tailwinds to headline benchmarks. Instead, an active rotational regime is underway: money is leaving concentrated growth leaders and dispersing into equal-weighted indices (RSP), regional banks, healthcare equipment, and cash-cow value plays.

2. Economic Outlook

The underlying market data signals a late-cycle economic environment transitioning into a sticky-inflation, "higher-for-longer" policy regime. The aggressive surge in Energy (XLE), Oil & Gas (DINO, SUN, VLO), and Financials (KBE, XLF) alongside strength in Healthcare (XLV, XPH) points directly toward late-cycle dynamics. Investors are discounting stubborn headline inflation and persistent short-term rate pressures from the Federal Reserve, driving risk appetite toward high free-cash-flow generators (COWZ), high dividend yielders (SCHD), and low-volatility equity strategies (SPLV). Overall sentiment is cautious and transitional; market participants are actively de-risking away from high-multiple, rate-sensitive growth stocks while maintaining equity exposure through cyclical value and defensive hedges.

3. Investment Ideas

Capital is visibly reallocating out of extended technology/growth assets into value-oriented cyclicals, mid/small-cap financials, and late-cycle defensive sectors. Favorable asset classes include Small/Mid-Cap Value, Financial Select, Insurance, and Healthcare Services, while technology and semiconductors face multi-week distribution. Investors should tilt style preferences toward Value over Growth and Mid/Small-Cap Cyclicals over Mega-Cap Growth. Portfolio construction should prioritize companies with high Gross Profitability (GPA), low debt multiples, and strong dividend coverage to navigate market breadth shifts and mega-cap stagnation.

4. ETF Opportunities

  • Defensive & Quality Yield: SCHD (US Dividend Equity), SPLV (Low Volatility), COWZ (Pacer Cash Cows)

  • Cyclical Value & Financials: XLF (Financial Select), KBE (Bank), KIE (Insurance), VOE (Mid-Cap Value)

  • Health & Life Sciences: XHS (Health Care Services), XPH (Pharmaceuticals), XHE (Health Care Equipment)

  • Broad Market & Equal-Weight Broadening: RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight), IJR (Small Cap), VBR (Small Cap Value)

5. Top 7 ETFs to Research In Now

  1. IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Small-Cap Equities

    • Reasoning: Captures strong upward momentum (Oscillator +10.00) and signals broadening market participation outside mega-cap tech.

  2. XHS (SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Health Care Services

    • Reasoning: Exceptional momentum thrust (Oscillator +19.00) leading the defensive late-cycle sector shift.

  3. KBE (SPDR S&P Bank ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Banking & Financials

    • Reasoning: Demonstrates strong early-reversal momentum (Oscillator +8.00, percentile 91) as institutional capital rotates into value.

  4. COWZ (Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: High Free Cash Flow Yield / Value

    • Reasoning: Backed by high fundamental score indicators (CAGR/DD score of 78) perfect for a quality-first, sticky-inflation macro backdrop.

  5. XPH (SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Pharmaceuticals

    • Reasoning: Highest sector oscillator (+22.00), offering defensive, non-cyclical growth as tech leadership wanes.

  6. SCHD (Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: High-Dividend Value

    • Reasoning: Displays steady basing dynamics (Oscillator +7.00) and low drawdown risk, providing stability in late-cycle environments.

  7. VOE (Vanguard Mid-Cap Value ETF)

    • Sector/Theme: Mid-Cap Value

    • Reasoning: Strong percentile ranking (79) and low historical drawdown, positioned right in the sweet spot of current market rotation.

Stats for 2026-07-31 (5th week of the Month)

List creation date: 2026-07-31

Median MarketCap: 11068

53.3% stocks on Nasdaq; 46.7% stocks on NYSE/Amex

Sector
Financials36%
Information Technology18%
Health Care18%
Energy11%
Consumer Staples7%
Consumer Discretionary4%
Communication Services4%
Industrials2%
Industry
Banks16%
Software11%
Oil, Gas & Consumable11%
Capital Markets9%
Pharmaceuticals7%
Financial Services4%
Consumer Finance4%
Consumer Staples Dist4%
Health Care Providers4%
Biotechnology4%
Entertainment4%
Insurance2%
Beverages2%
Aerospace & Defense2%
Household Durables2%
Specialty Retail2%
Life Sciences Tools &2%
Communications Equipm2%
Technology Hardware, 2%
Electronic Equipment,2%
Country
United States91%
Canada4%
Peru2%
United Kingdom2%
GPASym(0gpaamp5) IndustrySectorMktCapCountryName
3.96BMO Banks Financials 125634CanadaBank of Montreal
3.96BUSE Banks Financials 2567USFirst Busey
3.96CARE Banks Financials 766USCarter Bankshares,
3.88BAP Banks Financials 31825PeruCredicorp Ltd.
3.88UMBF Banks Financials 11068USUMB Financial
3.88KRNY Banks Financials 604USKearny Financial.
3.84CM Banks Financials 108111CanadaCanadian Imperial Bank of Comm
3.96STT Capital Markets Financials 50589USState Street
3.96VCTR Capital Markets Financials 6193USVictory Capital Holdings,
3.92AAMI Capital Markets Financials 3082USAcadian Asset Management
3.88BEN Capital Markets Financials 17595USFranklin Resources,
3.96CPAY Financial Services Financials 24975USCorpay,
3.96PAYS Financial Services Financials 501USPaysign,
3.96ENVA Consumer Finance Financials 6328USEnova International,
3.92ECPG Consumer Finance Financials 2017USEncore Capital Group,
3.92SKWD Insurance Financials 2431USSkyward Specialty Insurance Gr
3.96LQDA Pharmaceuticals Health Care 7480USLiquidia
3.96ETON Pharmaceuticals Health Care 1272USEton Pharmaceuticals,
3.92RPRX Pharmaceuticals Health Care 25905USRoyalty Pharma plc
3.84PACS Health Care Providers Health Care 7282USPACS Group,
3.80AMN Health Care Providers Health Care 1304USAMN Healthcare Services,
3.96CDNA Biotechnology Health Care 2258USCareDx,
3.88KNSA Biotechnology Health Care 5800United KingdomKiniksa Pharmaceuticals Intern
3.80BLFS Life Sciences Tools & Health Care 1528USBioLife Solutions,
3.96FTNT Software Information Technology 118825USFortinet,
3.96GEN Software Information Technology 16431USGen Digital
3.96OOMA Software Information Technology 598USOoma,
3.92CRWD Software Information Technology 194345USCrowdStrike Holdings,
3.84DDOG Software Information Technology 95387USDatadog,
3.96ANET Communications Equipm Information Technology 227097USArista Networks,
3.92NTAP Technology Hardware, Information Technology 35033USNetApp,
3.96APH Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 197699USAmphenol
3.96DINO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 16262USHF Sinclair
3.92SUN Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 10499USSunoco LP
3.88PBF Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 8551USPBF Energy
3.84VLO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 90093USValero Energy
3.80LPG Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 2029USDorian LPG Ltd.
3.92CHEF Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 4706USThe Chefs' Warehouse,
3.80CASY Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 32231USCasey's General Stores,
3.92MNST Beverages Consumer Staples 94260USMonster Beverage
3.92SN Household Durables Consumer Discretionary 22894USSharkNinja,
3.96ROST Specialty Retail Consumer Discretionary 80542USRoss Stores,
3.88ROKU Entertainment Communication Services 21416USRoku,
3.88CNK Entertainment Communication Services 4197USCinemark Holdings,
3.96HWM Aerospace & Defense Industrials 112934USHowmet Aerospace

0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).

% AllocSymName_currentListSymActionSectorsharesHldDlrHldallocHldPrice
5% AMATAPPLIED MATERIALS INC AMAT Information Technology1$507.74.4%$507.67
5% AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD Information Technology1$476.24.2%$476.15
6% ANETArista Networks IncANET Information Technology4$721.46.3%$180.35
6% APHAMPHENOL CORP CL A APH Information Technology4$642.85.6%$160.7
4% ARMArvinMeritor, Inc.ARM Information Technology2$479.44.2%$239.69
5% ASMLA S M L Holding N.V. NYASML Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1629
6% BMOBANK OF MONTREAL QUEBEC BMO Financials4$717.86.3%$179.45
6% GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl CGOOG Communication Services2$713.36.2%$356.65
6% GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl AGOOGL Communication Services2$712.36.2%$356.13
4%*KLACK L A TENCOR CORP KLAC Information Technology2$365.63.2%$182.82
5% LRCXLAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX Information Technology2$586.05.1%$293.02
6% MSMORGAN STANLEY MS Financials3$631.35.5%$210.42
5% MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU Information Technology1$823.07.2%$823.03
5% SCCOSOUTHERN COPPER CORP SCCO Materials3$548.14.8%$182.71
5% STXSEAGATE TECHNOLOGY STX Information Technology1$856.17.5%$856.13
5% TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADRTSM Information Technology1$404.33.5%$404.25
5% WDCWESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC Information Technology1$544.84.8%$544.84
0% ADIANALOG DEVICES ADIadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$367.41
0% RYROYAL BANK OF CANADA RYadded Financials0$0.00.0%$209.51
0%*GSGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GSadded Financials0$0.00.0%$1018.38
0%*HWMHowmet Aerospace IncHWMadded Industrials0$0.00.0%$282.26
0% DELLDell Technologies IncDELLadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$405.37
0% GLWCORNING INC GLWadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$138.25
6% LLYLILLY ELI & CO removed Health Care1$1,148.810.0%$1148.84
5% CSCOCISCO SYSTEMS INC removed Information Technology5$580.05.1%$115.99
These selected ETFs are ideas in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.258KIEInsurance* 2026-07-31
growth5.251VHTHealth*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
growth5.003VFHFinancials*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-31
growth5.003XLVHealth Care Select*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
growth4.505SPLVInvesco S&P 500 Low Volatility* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.005XRTRetail*Mid to Early Cycle2026-07-31
cyclical5.006SDOGValue* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.002VOEMid Cap Value* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.257KBEBank* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.255XHEHealth Care Equipment*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
cyclical5.259XLFFinancial Select*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-31
cyclical5.257XPHPharmaceuticalsLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
cyclical5.253XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
cyclical5.253XBIBiotechEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-07-31
cyclical5.252XSWSoftware & Services 2026-07-31
cyclical5.253IJRSmall Cap 2026-07-31
These selected ETFs are early signal in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.253VFHFinancials*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-31
growth5.252VTVLarge cap Value* 2026-07-31
growth5.258KIEInsurance* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.257KBEBank* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.252VBRSmall Cap Value* 2026-07-31
cyclical5.253IJRSmall Cap 2026-07-31
cyclical5.259XLFFinancial Select*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-31
cyclical5.257XPHPharmaceuticalsLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
cyclical5.253XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-31
cyclical5.252VOEMid Cap Value* 2026-07-31
These selected stocks are ideas in the current market environment. Weekly and Monthly Fract better than SPY. * means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY.
#%AllocShareSymNameIndustryDateGPAVer
These stocks are from S&P500 which have a stong Oscillator. Spy Osc=1
SymbolBoundOscMax
Fract		Percent
tile		Draw
Down		Draw
Down
7yr		cagr
7Yr		Namecagr
By
dd		score
EBAY 0.47111.097-60-4915.66eBay Inc.315.2
LLY*0.4541.275-35-2140.01Eli Lilly and Company1901.8
JPM*0.5231.194-34-3417.17JPMorgan Chase & Co.501.6
SPY 1.0011.095-33-1914.06SNP500741.0
CAH 0.4521.097-48-2125.96Cardinal Health Inc.1230.9
FTNT 0.36440.951-36-3239.11Fortinet Inc.12215.8
PANW 0.25400.865-36-2736.41Palo Alto Networks Inc.13410.0
AMD*0.21410.985-77-5548.11Advanced Micro Devices Inc.878.6
GWW 0.68110.864-28-2124.93W.W. Grainger Inc.1187.5
AAPL*0.3391.142-36-2328.55Apple Inc.1243.0
CASY 0.23111.999-21-1727.17Casey's General Stores Inc.1592.5
RTX 0.3760.950-22-2216.98RTX Corporation772.2
V*0.5731.031-27-2110.85Visa Inc.511.7
MU*0.10131.099-61-4451.52Micron Technology Inc.1171.3
ANET 0.2260.976-37-3140.02Arista Networks Inc.1291.3
AMZN*0.3030.728-39-4716.48Amazon.com Inc.350.9
KLAC 0.07-11.399-37-2844.90KLA Corporation160-0.1
PWR 0.17-21.199-47-2250.92Quanta Services Inc.231-0.3
GOOG*0.29-11.198-34-3428.74Alphabet Inc.84-0.3
GOOGL*0.29-11.097-30-3428.69Alphabet Inc.84-0.3
APH 0.22-21.198-34-2331.74Amphenol Corporation138-0.4
CTAS 0.35-21.222-25-2317.77Cintas Corporation77-0.7
HWM 0.26-41.780-15-1562.23Howmet Aerospace Inc.414-1.0
MSFT*0.24-51.232-30-2919.16Microsoft Corporation66-1.2
JBL 0.21-61.099-47-3039.35Jabil Inc.131-1.3
GEV 0.19-91.292-25-25131.55GE Vernova Inc.526-1.7
TJX 0.36-51.375-22-2116.33The TJX Companies Inc.77-1.8
FIX 0.15-151.498-37-3170.09Comfort Systems USA Inc.226-2.3
TSLA*0.10-250.549-53-5852.66Tesla Inc.90-2.5
EME 0.21-131.190-36-3037.83EMCOR Group Inc.126-2.7
HUBB 0.34-80.968-23-2020.26Hubbell Incorporated101-2.7
AVGO*0.20-141.290-23-2644.92Broadcom Inc.172-2.8
NVDA*0.29-141.061-58-5273.64NVIDIA Corporation141-4.1
COST 0.46-101.238-26-2019.37Costco Wholesale Corporation96-4.6
META*0.20-250.912-30-30103.69Meta Platforms Inc.345-5.0
WMT*0.40-131.291-24-1717.12Walmart Inc.100-5.2
ORLY 0.49-131.022-21-1819.70O'Reilly Automotive Inc.109-6.4
EXE 0.47-390.466-60-2843.00Expand Energy Corporation153-18.3

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