Friday, May 15, 2026

Stats for 2026-05-15 (3rd week of the Month)

1. Market Trend Analysis

Market Regime & Structural Strength

The market is currently operating within a high-conviction Mid-Trend Expansion phase, characterized by strong underlying momentum and an expanding appetite for risk.

  • Risk Level: Medium

  • Exchange & Cap Dynamics: The distribution of listings heavily favors the Nasdaq at 59.5% versus 40.5% for the NYSE/Amex, establishing a structurally risk-on posture. This growth-oriented backdrop is validated by a Median Market Capitalization of $21,651, a sweet spot indicating that institutional capital has moved past hyper-cap crowding and is actively validating mid-and-large-cap enterprises.

Market Breadth & Sector Rotation

Market internals reveal a highly constructive shift from narrow leadership to broad-based participation. While Information Technology maintains its structural dominance at 42% of the aggregate data footprint, a powerful rotation is underway into Financials (16%) and Industrials (15%).

More importantly, the oscillator velocity profiles show small-caps (IJR boundary oscillator outperforming at a structural level) and mid-caps (MDY) surging to the top of the momentum curve. This aggressive rate-of-change acceleration in secondary and tertiary cap tiers confirms that market breadth is expanding dynamically, providing a highly sustainable floor for the broader indices.

GPA Quality & Oscillator Trends

The primary market tracker (SPY) prints a mature, positive oscillator baseline of 1.00, confirming an entrenched structural uptrend. This momentum is fundamentally sound rather than speculative, anchored by exceptional leadership quality. The Gross Profitability Assets (GPA) metrics for the dominant core—specifically within Semiconductors (22% industry concentration)—feature near-perfect scores of 3.96 to 3.92 across the board (NVDA, AVGO, TSM, MU, AMD). Capital is concentrating in hyper-profitable business models while simultaneously driving cyclical rotations into infrastructure nodes like Construction & Engineering (PWR, FIX).

Mega Cap Leadership Check

An analysis of S&P 500 mega-caps provides crucial insight into the current market mechanism:

  • Core foundational stalwarts like AAPL (0.63 Osc), AMZN (0.68 Osc), and GOOG/GOOGL (~0.53 Osc) retain firmly positive absolute oscillator values, verifying that institutional support remains intact.

  • Concurrently, hyper-scale leaders such as NVDA (0.46 Osc), MSFT (0.54 Osc), and META (0.26 Osc) are printing lower relative velocity ranks and negative momentum change scores.

Strategic Interpretation: The mega-caps are experiencing a healthy transition from positive momentum to temporary consolidation/rotation. Because this cooling is occurring alongside a powerful breakout in small/mid-caps and broader industrials rather than an index liquidation, it signals a bullish market expansion. Mega-caps are effectively providing a sturdy valuation floor while capital rotates outward to fuel the next leg of the rally.

2. Economic Outlook

The market internals point toward an economy undergoing a robust, capital-intensive expansion cycle, driven by corporate efficiency and infrastructure modernization. The immense concentration of capital in Semiconductor hardware architecture (22%) and Construction & Engineering (6%) implies that corporate capex is aggressively flowing into artificial intelligence infrastructure, grid optimization, and structural re-shoring. Market sentiment is decisively bullish but highly selective, displaying a sharp aversion to traditional defensive or late-cycle inflationary refuges. The noticeable deceleration in Energy (XLE, VDE) and Utilities (XLU, VPU) trends suggests that liquidity is highly confident in persistent economic growth, expanding into productive equity risk rather than huddling in defensive safe-havens.

3. Investment Ideas

Tactical asset allocation should favor a refined "barbell" framework that captures secular tech dominance on one side and expanding cyclical breadth on the other. The clear style preference is an optimized blend of Large-Cap Growth to maintain exposure to elite, high-GPA tech nodes, paired with an overweighted allocation to Small-to-Mid-Cap Cyclicals to ride the fresh momentum surging through the broader market. Portfolios should remain structurally underweight in fixed income and traditional defensive value (Staples, Utilities), instead redirecting capital toward high-profitability Technology, Capital Markets financial operators, and infrastructure-leveraged Industrials.

4. ETF Opportunities

  • Core Secular Growth & Momentum: QQQ, ONEQ, MTUM, UPRO

  • Technology & Semiconductor Architecture: XSD, XLK, SMH

  • Breadth Expansion & Secondary Caps: IJR, MDY, IWM

  • Infrastructure & Cyclical Industrials: XLI, XME, XTN

  • Global Diversification & Hard Assets: IEMG, EEM, DBC

5. Top 7 ETFs to Research

  1. XSD (SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF) – Theme: Semiconductor Equal-Weight | Sits at the absolute apex of current sector strength, perfectly capturing the data's intense 22% structural concentration in high-GPA semiconductor firms.

  2. IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF) – Theme: Small-Cap Equities | Leverages the explosive positive oscillator velocity breaking out across market internals, signaling an aggressive institutional push out of hyper-cap crowding.

  3. XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) – Theme: Mega-Cap Information Technology | Secures foundational, large-cap growth exposure across the dominant 42% tech sector mix, backstopped by premium profitability metrics.

  4. MTUM (iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF) – Theme: Momentum Factor | Systematically aggregates the strongest-trending assets in a mid-trend environment where tech and industrial leaders maintain high price persistence.

  5. MDY (SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF) – Theme: Mid-Cap Equities | Capitalizes directly on the market's risk-on rotation into mid-sized companies, hitting the exact sweet spot of the current $21,651 median market cap.

  6. XME (SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF) – Theme: Industrial Materials | Provides an essential, high-conviction cyclical asset buffer tied directly to accelerating corporate capex, factory automation, and grid construction.

  7. IEMG (iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF) – Theme: Emerging Markets Growth | Captures early-stage global liquidity expansion as international technology nodes and supply hubs (e.g., Taiwan at 3%) show synchronized structural strength.

Stats for 2026-05-15 (3rd week of the Month)

List creation date: 2026-05-15

Median MarketCap: 21651

59.5% stocks on Nasdaq; 40.5% stocks on NYSE/Amex

Sector
Information Technology42%
Financials16%
Industrials15%
Energy6%
Health Care6%
Materials5%
Communication Services4%
Consumer Discretionary3%
Consumer Staples3%
Industry
Semiconductors & Semi22%
Electronic Equipment,13%
Capital Markets11%
Construction & Engine6%
Metals & Mining5%
Oil, Gas & Consumable4%
Electrical Equipment4%
Technology Hardware, 4%
Communications Equipm3%
Health Care Providers3%
Pharmaceuticals3%
Banks3%
Consumer Finance3%
Machinery3%
Energy Equipment & Se3%
Interactive Media & S3%
Entertainment1%
Aerospace & Defense1%
Building Products1%
Hotels, Restaurants &1%
Diversified Consumer 1%
Consumer Staples Dist1%
Beverages1%
Biotechnology1%
Software1%
Country
United States83%
Taiwan3%
United Kingdom3%
Canada3%
Cayman Islands1%
France1%
Greece1%
Hong Kong1%
Ireland1%
Israel1%
Singapore1%
Bermuda1%
GPASym(0gpaamp5) IndustrySectorMktCapCountryName
3.96NVDA Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 5709868USNVIDIA
3.96AVGO Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 2082260USBroadcom
3.96TSM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 1866359TaiwanTaiwan Semiconductor Manufactu
3.96MU Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 875133USMicron Technology,
3.96AMD Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 733281USAdvanced Micro Devices,
3.96ASX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 76246TaiwanASE Technology Holding, Lt
3.96MTSI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 29264USMACOM Technology Solutions Hol
3.92LRCX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 374108USLam Research
3.92ADI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 208361USAnalog Devices,
3.92MRVL Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 159659USMarvell Technology,
3.92ALAB Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 39191USAstera Labs,
3.92MKSI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 21196USMKS
3.88KLAC Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 247270USKLA
3.88SITM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 21651USSiTime
3.88SIMO Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 8967Hong KongSilicon Motion Technology
3.84NVMI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 17675IsraelNova Ltd.
3.80TXN Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 280463USTexas Instruments
3.96FN Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 26746Cayman IslandsFabrinet
3.96SNX Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 18841USTD SYNNEX
3.96KN Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 3073USKnowles
3.92COHR Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 79222USCoherent.
3.92TTMI Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 17849USTTM Technologies,
3.92CGNX Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 10999USCognex
3.92ARW Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 10955USArrow Electronics,
3.88GLW Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 179254USCorning
3.88PLXS Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 7015USPlexus.
3.84SANM Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 12973USSanmina
3.96STX Technology Hardware, Information Technology 180451SingaporeSeagate Technology Holdings pl
3.92WDC Technology Hardware, Information Technology 168601USWestern Digital
3.88DELL Technology Hardware, Information Technology 161175USDell Technologies
3.96LITE Communications Equipm Information Technology 71830USLumentum Holdings
3.80DGII Communications Equipm Information Technology 2421USDigi International
3.96FTNT Software Information Technology 89281USFortinet,
3.96VCTR Capital Markets Financials 5498USVictory Capital Holdings,
3.96VIRT Capital Markets Financials 4786USVirtu Financial,
3.92BK Capital Markets Financials 93334USThe Bank of New York Mellon Co
3.88IBKR Capital Markets Financials 39327USInteractive Brokers Group,
3.84MS Capital Markets Financials 306829USMorgan Stanley
3.84STT Capital Markets Financials 42556USState Street
3.84NTRS Capital Markets Financials 30403USNorthern Trust
3.84WT Capital Markets Financials 2968USWisdomTree,
3.80GS Capital Markets Financials 297084USThe Goldman Sachs Group,
3.96CM Banks Financials 103192CanadaCanadian Imperial Bank of Comm
3.96CARE Banks Financials 602USCarter Bankshares,
3.92FCFS Consumer Finance Financials 9974USFirstCash Holdings,
3.92EZPW Consumer Finance Financials 2017USEZCORP,
3.96PWR Construction & Engine Industrials 117059USQuanta Services,
3.96FIX Construction & Engine Industrials 71778USComfort Systems USA,
3.96STRL Construction & Engine Industrials 27281USSterling Infrastructure,
3.88MTZ Construction & Engine Industrials 33910USMasTec,
3.80AGX Construction & Engine Industrials 10343USArgan,
3.92VRT Electrical Equipment Industrials 144513USVertiv Holdings Co
3.92NVT Electrical Equipment Industrials 28133United KingdomnVent Electric plc
3.84FCEL Electrical Equipment Industrials 1143USFuelCell Energy,
3.88MLI Machinery Industrials 15403USMueller Industries,
3.80CAT Machinery Industrials 423846USCaterpillar
3.88ATRO Aerospace & Defense Industrials 2954USAstronics
3.84AAON Building Products Industrials 11468USAAON,
3.84INSW Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 4233USInternational Seaways,
3.84ECO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 2201GreeceOkeanis Eco Tankers.
3.80DINO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 12387USHF Sinclair
3.92SEI Energy Equipment & Se Energy 4571USSolaris Energy Infrastructure,
3.88NESR Energy Equipment & Se Energy 2621USNational Energy Services Reuni
3.88ASTH Health Care Providers Health Care 1942USAstrana Health,
3.84AMN Health Care Providers Health Care 1175USAMN Healthcare Services,
3.96LQDA Pharmaceuticals Health Care 5273USLiquidia
3.84JAZZ Pharmaceuticals Health Care 14497IrelandJazz Pharmaceuticals plc
3.84KNSA Biotechnology Health Care 4504United KingdomKiniksa Pharmaceuticals Intern
3.92SSRM Metals & Mining Materials 7118USSSR Mining
3.92CSTM Metals & Mining Materials 4561FranceConstellium SE
3.88HBM Metals & Mining Materials 10848CanadaHudbay Minerals
3.84STLD Metals & Mining Materials 33844USSteel Dynamics,
3.96GOOG Interactive Media & S Communication Services 4838417USAlphabet
3.96GOOGL Interactive Media & S Communication Services 4838417USAlphabet
3.92ROKU Entertainment Communication Services 18587USRoku,
3.92VIK Hotels, Restaurants & Consumer Discretionary 38683BermudaViking Holdings Ltd
3.80LINC Diversified Consumer Consumer Discretionary 1617USLincoln Edual Services C
3.80CHEF Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 3310USThe Chefs' Warehouse,
3.92COCO Beverages Consumer Staples 4366USThe Vita Coco Company,

0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).

% AllocSymName_currentListSymActionSectorsharesHldDlrHldallocHldPrice
5% ADIANALOG DEVICES ADI Information Technology1$417.53.8%$417.49
4% AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD Information Technology1$424.13.8%$424.1
4% AMZNAMAZON.COM INC AMZN Consumer Discretionary2$528.34.8%$264.14
5% AVGOBroadcom LimitedAVGO Information Technology1$425.23.8%$425.19
5% CMCANADIAN IMPRL BK COMM CM Financials5$556.55.0%$111.3
4% DELLDell Technologies IncDELL Information Technology2$484.04.4%$241.99
5% GLWCORNING INC GLW Information Technology3$575.45.2%$191.81
5% GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl CGOOG Communication Services1$393.33.6%$393.32
5% GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl AGOOGL Communication Services1$396.83.6%$396.78
4% KLACK L A TENCOR CORP KLAC Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1804.32
4% LRCXLAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX Information Technology2$569.45.1%$284.72
5% MRVLMARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUPMRVL Information Technology3$530.74.8%$176.89
5% MSMORGAN STANLEY MS Financials3$577.55.2%$192.51
4% MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU Information Technology1$724.76.5%$724.66
5% NVDANVIDIA CORP NVDA Information Technology3$676.06.1%$225.32
5% PWRQUANTA SERVICES INC PWR Industrials1$770.07.0%$769.99
5% STXSEAGATE TECHNOLOGY STX Information Technology1$795.57.2%$795.47
4% TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADRTSM Information Technology1$404.43.7%$404.35
5%*VRT VRT Industrials2$741.96.7%$370.94
5% WDCWESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC Information Technology1$482.04.4%$482.02
0% TXNTEXAS INSTRUMENTS TXNadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$302.73
0% GSGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GSadded Financials0$0.00.0%$948.47
0%*HWMHowmet Aerospace IncHWMadded Industrials0$0.00.0%$260.35
0% CATCATERPILLAR INC CATadded Industrials0$0.00.0%$888.31
5% AAPLAPPLE INC removed Information Technology2$600.55.4%$300.23
4% ASMLA S M L Holding N.V. NY removed Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1501.81
These selected ETFs are ideas in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-15
growth5.253UPROSP500 2026-05-15
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-15
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-05-15
growth5.250QQQGrowth 2026-05-15
growth5.004ONEQNasdaq Index 2026-05-15
growth4.505VUGLarge Cap growth* 2026-05-15
cyclical4.502VDEEnergy+Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-15
cyclical4.507XLEEnergy Select Sector +Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-15
cyclical4.503IJRSmall Cap+ 2026-05-15
cyclical5.006IEMGEmerging Market 2026-05-15
cyclical5.001IWMSmall Cap 2026-05-15
cyclical5.004XMEMetals and MiningLate Cycle to Recession 2026-05-15
cyclical5.004XTNTransportationMid to Late cycle2026-05-15
cyclical4.5014DBCCommodity+Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-15
cyclical5.258EEMEmerging Markets 2026-05-15
cyclical5.252XTLTelecom 2026-05-15
cyclical5.256TQQQGrowth 2026-05-15
cyclical5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-05-15
These selected ETFs are early signal in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-15
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-15
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-05-15
growth5.250QQQGrowth 2026-05-15
growth5.255ONEQNasdaq Index 2026-05-15
cyclical5.256TQQQGrowth 2026-05-15
cyclical5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-05-15
cyclical5.252XTLTelecom 2026-05-15
cyclical5.2516DBCCommodity+Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-15
These selected stocks are ideas in the current market environment. Weekly and Monthly Fract better than SPY. * means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY.
#%AllocShareSymNameIndustryDateGPAVer
250.002.5*FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. Construction & Engineering2026-05-153.962,3,4
150.0011.8 AVGOBroadcom Inc. Semiconductors & Semiconducto2026-05-153.962,3,4
These stocks are from S&P500 which have a stong Oscillator. Spy Osc=3
SymbolBoundOscMax
Fract		Percent
tile		Draw
Down		Draw
Down
7yr		cagr
7Yr		Namecagr
By
dd		score
STX 0.50901.199-59-5150.45Seagate Technology Holdings pl9845.0
PWR 0.68341.099-47-2255.09Quanta Services Inc.25023.1
MPWR 0.56391.178-49-3742.62Monolithic Power Systems Inc.11521.8
ADI 0.60331.297-28-2121.33Analog Devices Inc.10119.8
CASY 0.72231.899-21-1730.42Casey's General Stores Inc.17816.6
GOOGL*0.52251.199-30-3431.44Alphabet Inc.9213.0
GOOG*0.53231.198-34-3431.38Alphabet Inc.9212.2
KLAC 0.48251.399-37-2849.06KLA Corporation17512.0
BK 1.15101.499-52-3516.45The Bank of New York Mellon Co4711.5
CBOE 0.45221.195-32-3019.57Cboe Global Markets Inc.659.9
TRGP 0.50131.187-85-6130.61Targa Resources Corp.506.5
EME 0.54111.297-36-3041.16EMCOR Group Inc.1375.9
AAPL*0.6381.030-37-2330.05Apple Inc.1305.0
WMB 0.8161.298-68-3315.87The Williams Companies Inc.484.9
WMT*0.9741.599-24-1721.67Walmart Inc.1273.9
AVGO*0.5261.396-24-2645.75Broadcom Inc.1753.1
SPY 1.0031.094-33-1914.58SNP500763.0
GS 0.6631.198-49-2825.23The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.902.0
WELL 0.6531.699-41-4215.34Welltower Inc.362.0
HLT 0.5311.066-31-3118.98Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.610.5
AMD*0.51800.969-77-5547.76Advanced Micro Devices Inc.8640.8
MU*0.41920.999-61-4452.14Micron Technology Inc.11837.7
FIX 0.38331.599-37-3170.01Comfort Systems USA Inc.22512.5
JBL 0.40251.099-47-3042.47Jabil Inc.14110.0
FTNT 0.45220.929-36-3233.54Fortinet Inc.1049.9
GEV 0.43191.296-26-26158.59GE Vernova Inc.6098.2
AMZN*0.68110.827-40-4715.98Amazon.com Inc.347.5
CTVA 0.7780.662-26-2618.81Corteva Inc.726.2
XOM*0.45110.489-52-4710.94Exxon Mobil Corporation235.0
PANW 0.37120.841-36-2731.03Palo Alto Networks Inc.1144.4
GWW 0.5080.857-28-2125.34W.W. Grainger Inc.1204.0
LIN 1.1510.89-20-1815.84Linde plc881.2
SNPS 0.4501.116-29-3222.67Synopsys Inc.700.0
NVDA*0.46-11.164-58-5277.94NVIDIA Corporation149-0.5
TSLA*0.36-20.553-53-5860.39Tesla Inc.104-0.7
HWM 0.28-31.783-15-1562.78Howmet Aerospace Inc.418-0.8
ANET 0.16-70.972-37-3337.16Arista Networks Inc.112-1.1
HUBB 0.35-30.973-24-2021.78Hubbell Incorporated108-1.1
LLY*0.35-61.273-35-2136.19Eli Lilly and Company172-2.1
COST 1.11-31.360-26-2023.11Costco Wholesale Corporation115-3.3
APH 0.24-151.196-34-2327.11Amphenol Corporation117-3.6
RTX 0.46-130.848-22-2215.69RTX Corporation71-6.0
META*0.26-241.012-31-31114.32Meta Platforms Inc.368-6.2
MSFT*0.54-121.232-29-2918.84Microsoft Corporation64-6.5
MSI 0.53-141.341-21-2515.30Motorola Solutions Inc.61-7.4
JPM*0.85-91.193-34-3415.31JPMorgan Chase & Co.45-7.7
ARES 0.35-240.942-34-3325.04Ares Management Corporation75-8.4
AZO 0.63-160.826-22-1919.08AutoZone Inc.100-10.1
ORLY 0.71-151.031-21-1620.81O'Reilly Automotive Inc.130-10.7
EXE 0.54-430.468-61-2244.31Expand Energy Corporation201-23.2

Posted by at 5:44:00 PM 0 comments

Friday, May 8, 2026

Stats for 2026-05-08 (2nd week of the Month)

1. Market Trend Analysis

The market is currently navigating a Late Mid-Trend phase characterized by a high-stakes "changing of the guard" among leadership. While the broader indices remain buoyed by specific technology pockets, we are witnessing a significant leadership breakdown in several traditional mega-cap pillars.

Multi-Week Trend & Exchange Distribution

Over the last three weeks, we have seen the Nasdaq maintain its dominance at 62.2% of market participation, yet the Median Market Cap has stabilized at $18,300, suggesting that the "risk-on" appetite is no longer expanding into the speculative micro-cap space but is instead consolidating within high-quality mid-to-large caps. The NYSE/Amex participation (37.8%) remains steady, indicating that while the tech narrative is the primary driver, industrial and financial internals are providing a necessary floor.

Oscillator Interpretation: The Divergence Signal

The oscillator data reveals a stark bifurcation:

  • Momentum Leaders: Semiconductors (SMH Oscillator: 33, XSD Oscillator: 48) and Electronic Equipment continue to display parabolic momentum. This suggests the "AI Infrastructure" trade is still in a strong upward trend, ignoring broader market jitters.

  • Correction Warnings: Conversely, several "Magnificent 7" names have transitioned from positive to sharply negative oscillators. META (-22), MSFT (-13), and NVDA (-6) are signaling short-term exhaustion and trend weakening.

  • Early Reversals: Small-caps (IJR/IWM) are showing rising oscillators vs. the prior two weeks, suggesting a basing pattern and the potential for a rotational "catch-up" trade.

GPA Insights: Quality vs. Speculation

The GPA (Gross Profitability Asset ratio) for the current leadership set is exceptionally high, with top-tier names like NVIDIA, Broadcom, and Alphabet maintaining a 3.96 GPA. This indicates that the current market leaders are not speculative "vaporware" but are backed by robust fundamental efficiency. However, a falling GPA in broader discretionary sectors suggests that while leadership is strong, it is becoming increasingly narrow—a classic caution signal.

Mega-Cap Leadership Check

The leadership signal is currently Bearish/Rotational.

  • Majority Negative: MSFT, META, and NVDA oscillators are negative.

  • Resilient Holdouts: GOOGL (23) and AMZN (11) are still providing bullish confirmation.

  • The Verdict: The transition of MSFT and META into negative territory indicates a leadership breakdown. The market is no longer moving in a synchronized "Magnificent 7" pack. Instead, capital is rotating internally within tech—moving away from Software/Social and deeper into Hardware (Semis) and Utilities/Construction infrastructure (PWR, FIX).

2. Economic Outlook

The data suggests an economy that is highly bifurcated, characterized by a "Barbell" expansion. On one end, the massive capital expenditure in AI and digital infrastructure is keeping the Information Technology sector (42% weight) in a state of hyper-growth. On the other end, the strength in Construction & Engineering (9% industry weight) and Industrials (16%) suggests a "re-industrialization" theme or a response to structural infrastructure needs. Market sentiment is cautiously bullish; there is high liquidity and an appetite for risk, but only if that risk is backed by high GPA quality. The economy is likely in a "higher-for-longer" productivity phase where efficiency (GPA) is the only defense against tightening financial conditions.

3. Investment Ideas

Capital is clearly flowing away from over-extended software mega-caps and into Hardware Infrastructure and Small-Cap Industrials. We recommend a Quality-Growth Barbell strategy. Investors should maintain exposure to the high-momentum Semiconductor theme (where GPA remains elite) while balancing the portfolio with Cyclical Industrials that are showing early-stage oscillator reversals. Growth is the primary style, but we are seeing a shift from "Large-Cap Growth" (which is narrowing) to "Mid-Cap Quality."

  • Market Regime: Mid-to-Late Trend

  • Risk Level: Medium-High (due to mega-cap divergence)


4. ETF Opportunities

  • High Momentum: SMH, XSD (Semiconductors)

  • Quality Rotation: MTUM (Momentum), XLK (Technology)

  • Broadening Breadth: IJR (Small-Cap), IWM (Russell 2000)

  • Inflation/Late-Cycle Hedges: XME (Metals & Mining), DBC (Commodities)

  • Infrastructure Plays: XTL (Telecom), XTN (Transportation)

5. Top 7 ETFs to Investigate Now

  1. XSD (S&P Semiconductor ETF): Highest oscillator (48) and deep participation across the semi-supply chain, moving beyond just NVDA.

  2. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF): Targeted exposure to the highest GPA leaders (AVGO, TSM) in a strong upward trend.

  3. IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF): A rising oscillator vs. prior weeks suggests a basing period is ending; excellent for a risk-on rotation play.

  4. MTUM (iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF): Captures the shift in leadership quality, filtering for stocks with the strongest price-trend persistence.

  5. XME (SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF): Strong performance in Materials suggests a late-cycle hedge and institutional flow into "real assets."

  6. XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund): Despite mega-cap weakness, the underlying GPA of the tech sector remains the primary engine of the S&P 500.

  7. XTL (SPDR S&P Telecom ETF): An emerging sector showing early signal strength as communication infrastructure becomes a priority.


Stats for 2026-05-08 (2nd week of the Month)

List creation date: 2026-05-08

Median MarketCap: 18300

62.2% stocks on Nasdaq; 37.8% stocks on NYSE/Amex

Sector
Information Technology42%
Financials19%
Industrials16%
Energy5%
Consumer Discretionary4%
Health Care4%
Communication Services4%
Consumer Staples3%
Materials3%
Industry
Semiconductors & Semi24%
Electronic Equipment,12%
Construction & Engine9%
Capital Markets8%
Banks7%
Oil, Gas & Consumable4%
Technology Hardware, 4%
Interactive Media & S3%
Metals & Mining3%
Hotels, Restaurants &3%
Consumer Finance3%
Electrical Equipment3%
Biotechnology3%
Aerospace & Defense1%
Building Products1%
Broadline Retail1%
Consumer Staples Dist1%
Beverages1%
Pharmaceuticals1%
Machinery1%
Energy Equipment & Se1%
Financial Services1%
Entertainment1%
Communications Equipm1%
Country
United States84%
Taiwan3%
United Kingdom3%
Bermuda3%
Canada1%
Greece1%
Hong Kong1%
Ireland1%
Israel1%
Singapore1%
GPASym(0gpaamp5) IndustrySectorMktCapCountryName
3.96NVDA Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 5138531USNVIDIA
3.96AVGO Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 1953335USBroadcom
3.96TSM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 1906682TaiwanTaiwan Semiconductor Manufactu
3.96MU Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 729046USMicron Technology,
3.96AMD Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 666035USAdvanced Micro Devices,
3.96MTSI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 25839USMACOM Technology Solutions Hol
3.96AMKR Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 17914USAmkor Technology,
3.92LRCX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 358176USLam Research
3.92ADI Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 199441USAnalog Devices,
3.92MRVL Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 139928USMarvell Technology,
3.92MPWR Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 77427USMonolithic Power Systems,
3.92ASX Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 75196TaiwanASE Technology Holding, Lt
3.92SITM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 21047USSiTime
3.88KLAC Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 230329USKLA
3.88ALGM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 8881USAllegro MicroSystems,
3.88SIMO Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 8248Hong KongSilicon Motion Technology
3.84CAMT Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 8988IsraelCamtek Ltd.
3.80FORM Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 11279USFormFactor,
3.96SNX Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 18687USTD SYNNEX
3.96KN Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 2893USKnowles
3.92GLW Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 156980USCorning
3.92COHR Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 62446USCoherent.
3.92TTMI Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 15969USTTM Technologies,
3.88ARW Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 9697USArrow Electronics,
3.84JBL Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 36884USJabil
3.80KEYS Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 60894USKeysight Technologies,
3.80SANM Electronic Equipment, Information Technology 12708USSanmina
3.96STX Technology Hardware, Information Technology 171858SingaporeSeagate Technology Holdings pl
3.92WDC Technology Hardware, Information Technology 159902USWestern Digital
3.92DELL Technology Hardware, Information Technology 149719USDell Technologies
3.96LITE Communications Equipm Information Technology 64013USLumentum Holdings
3.96VIRT Capital Markets Financials 4311USVirtu Financial,
3.96WT Capital Markets Financials 2772USWisdomTree,
3.88VCTR Capital Markets Financials 5234USVictory Capital Holdings,
3.84MS Capital Markets Financials 299952USMorgan Stanley
3.84IBKR Capital Markets Financials 37303USInteractive Brokers Group,
3.80SNEX Capital Markets Financials 9582USStoneX Group
3.92CM Banks Financials 101878CanadaCanadian Imperial Bank of Comm
3.88UMBF Banks Financials 9966USUMB Financial
3.84CUBI Banks Financials 2624USCustomers Bancorp,
3.80VLY Banks Financials 7428USValley National Bancorp
3.80WSFS Banks Financials 3750USWSFS Financial
3.96EZPW Consumer Finance Financials 2029USEZCORP,
3.92FCFS Consumer Finance Financials 9858USFirstCash Holdings,
3.96RELY Financial Services Financials 4794USRemitly Global,
3.96PWR Construction & Engine Industrials 112655USQuanta Services,
3.96FIX Construction & Engine Industrials 68251USComfort Systems USA,
3.96STRL Construction & Engine Industrials 24899USSterling Infrastructure,
3.92ROAD Construction & Engine Industrials 7423USConstruction Partners,
3.92MYRG Construction & Engine Industrials 6655USMYR Group
3.88MTZ Construction & Engine Industrials 32155USMasTec,
3.80AGX Construction & Engine Industrials 9633USArgan,
3.92VRT Electrical Equipment Industrials 130601USVertiv Holdings Co
3.92NVT Electrical Equipment Industrials 26964United KingdomnVent Electric plc
3.80SATL Aerospace & Defense Industrials 948USSatellogic
3.84AAON Building Products Industrials 10578USAAON,
3.88MLI Machinery Industrials 15232USMueller Industries,
3.88GLNG Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 5600BermudaGolar LNG Limited
3.84DINO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 12709USHF Sinclair
3.80ECO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 2186GreeceOkeanis Eco Tankers.
3.88SEI Energy Equipment & Se Energy 4268USSolaris Energy Infrastructure,
3.96RSI Hotels, Restaurants & Consumer Discretionary 2896USRush Street Interactive,
3.92VIK Hotels, Restaurants & Consumer Discretionary 37457BermudaViking Holdings Ltd
3.96AMZN Broadline Retail Consumer Discretionary 2917005USAmazon.com,
3.92ANAB Biotechnology Health Care 1925USAnaptysBio,
3.84KNSA Biotechnology Health Care 4380United KingdomKiniksa Pharmaceuticals Intern
3.88JAZZ Pharmaceuticals Health Care 14240IrelandJazz Pharmaceuticals plc
3.96GOOG Interactive Media & S Communication Services 4807282USAlphabet
3.96GOOGL Interactive Media & S Communication Services 4807282USAlphabet
3.92ROKU Entertainment Communication Services 18708USRoku,
3.80STLD Metals & Mining Materials 33590USSteel Dynamics,
3.80CMP Metals & Mining Materials 1182USCompass Minerals International
3.80CHEF Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 3276USThe Chefs' Warehouse,
3.92COCO Beverages Consumer Staples 3895USThe Vita Coco Company,

0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).

% AllocSymName_currentListSymActionSectorsharesHldDlrHldallocHldPrice
5% AAPLAPPLE INC AAPL Information Technology2$586.65.3%$293.32
5% ADIANALOG DEVICES ADI Information Technology1$416.53.8%$416.52
5% AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD Information Technology1$455.24.1%$455.19
5% AMZNAMAZON.COM INC AMZN Consumer Discretionary2$545.44.9%$272.68
4% ASMLA S M L Holding N.V. NYASML Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1592.02
5% AVGOBroadcom LimitedAVGO Information Technology1$430.03.9%$430
5% CMCANADIAN IMPRL BK COMM CM Financials5$550.15.0%$110.01
5% DELLDell Technologies IncDELL Information Technology2$520.94.7%$260.46
5% GLWCORNING INC GLW Information Technology3$560.85.1%$186.94
5% GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl CGOOG Communication Services1$397.13.6%$397.05
5% GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl AGOOGL Communication Services1$400.83.6%$400.8
5% KLACK L A TENCOR CORP KLAC Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1869.19
5% LRCXLAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX Information Technology2$588.15.3%$294.05
5% MRVLMARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUPMRVL Information Technology3$510.44.6%$170.13
5% MSMORGAN STANLEY MS Financials3$579.35.3%$193.09
5% MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU Information Technology1$746.86.8%$746.81
5% NVDANVIDIA CORP NVDA Information Technology3$645.65.9%$215.2
5% PWRQUANTA SERVICES INC PWR Industrials1$745.06.8%$745
5% STXSEAGATE TECHNOLOGY STX Information Technology1$782.67.1%$782.64
5% TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADRTSM Information Technology1$411.73.7%$411.68
5%*VRT VRT Industrials2$679.96.2%$339.97
5% WDCWESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC Information Technology1$480.04.4%$480
These selected ETFs are ideas in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-08
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-08
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-05-08
growth5.000QQQGrowth 2026-05-08
growth5.003UPROSP500* 2026-05-08
growth4.504ONEQNasdaq Index* 2026-05-08
growth4.505VUGLarge Cap growth* 2026-05-08
cyclical5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-05-08
cyclical4.502VDEEnergy+Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-08
cyclical4.5014DBCCommodity+Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-08
cyclical5.003IJRSmall Cap 2026-05-08
cyclical5.004XMEMetals and MiningLate Cycle to Recession 2026-05-08
cyclical5.006TQQQGrowth* 2026-05-08
cyclical5.257EEMEmerging Markets 2026-05-08
cyclical5.256IEMGEmerging Market 2026-05-08
cyclical5.251IWMSmall Cap 2026-05-08
cyclical5.255XTNTransportationMid to Late cycle2026-05-08
cyclical5.252XTLTelecom 2026-05-08
These selected ETFs are early signal in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.250SMHSemiconductorsEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-08
growth5.252XLKTechnology Select SectorEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-05-08
growth5.251MTUMBlackRock Momentum 2026-05-08
growth5.250QQQGrowth 2026-05-08
growth5.255ONEQNasdaq Index* 2026-05-08
cyclical5.256TQQQGrowth* 2026-05-08
cyclical5.2517DBCCommodity+Late Cycle and Inflation2026-05-08
cyclical5.250XSDSemiconductor 2026-05-08
cyclical5.252XTLTelecom 2026-05-08
These selected stocks are ideas in the current market environment. Weekly and Monthly Fract better than SPY. * means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY.
#%AllocShareSymNameIndustryDateGPAVer
250.002.6*FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc. Construction & Engineering2026-05-083.962,3,4
150.0011.6 AVGOBroadcom Inc. Semiconductors & Semiconducto2026-05-083.962,3,4
These stocks are from S&P500 which have a stong Oscillator. Spy Osc=4
SymbolBoundOscMax
Fract		Percent
tile		Draw
Down		Draw
Down
7yr		cagr
7Yr		Namecagr
By
dd		score
STX 0.48851.199-59-5148.55Seagate Technology Holdings pl9540.8
MPWR 0.58421.175-49-3742.04Monolithic Power Systems Inc.11324.4
ADI 0.62331.296-28-2120.86Analog Devices Inc.9920.5
PWR 0.67281.099-47-2253.09Quanta Services Inc.24118.8
CASY 0.73221.899-21-1730.78Casey's General Stores Inc.18116.1
KLAC 0.50271.399-37-2849.02KLA Corporation17513.5
GOOG*0.54231.197-34-3431.53Alphabet Inc.9212.4
GOOGL*0.52231.198-30-3431.63Alphabet Inc.9312.0
CBOE 0.51181.195-32-3019.09Cboe Global Markets Inc.639.2
BK 1.2171.499-52-3515.34The Bank of New York Mellon Co438.5
EME 0.54121.297-36-3041.36EMCOR Group Inc.1376.5
TRGP 0.7261.086-85-6130.05Targa Resources Corp.494.3
SPY 1.0041.094-33-1914.41SNP500754.0
AAPL*0.6951.029-37-2328.49Apple Inc.1233.5
AVGO*0.5361.396-24-2646.05Broadcom Inc.1773.2
WMT*1.0731.599-24-1721.47Walmart Inc.1263.2
WELL 0.7641.699-41-4216.14Welltower Inc.383.0
IBKR 0.4751.096-58-2929.16Interactive Brokers Group Inc1002.4
GS 0.7531.098-49-2824.59The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.872.3
HLT 0.6521.066-31-3119.56Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc.631.3
AMD*0.52810.969-77-5549.64Advanced Micro Devices Inc.9042.1
MU*0.40880.999-61-4452.05Micron Technology Inc.11835.2
FIX 0.38321.599-37-3168.75Comfort Systems USA Inc.22112.2
JBL 0.41291.099-47-3042.68Jabil Inc.14211.9
GEV 0.44201.296-26-26159.86GE Vernova Inc.6148.8
AMZN*0.71110.827-40-4716.10Amazon.com Inc.347.8
CTVA 0.8670.662-26-2618.65Corteva Inc.716.0
FTNT 0.40120.928-36-3232.01Fortinet Inc.1004.8
GWW 0.6750.856-28-2123.81W.W. Grainger Inc.1133.4
XOM*0.4660.489-52-479.45Exxon Mobil Corporation202.8
SNPS 0.4401.116-29-3223.28Synopsys Inc.720.0
HUBB 0.4500.974-24-2021.46Hubbell Incorporated1070.0
LIN 1.4500.88-20-1815.81Linde plc870.0
PANW 0.31-10.837-36-2726.66Palo Alto Networks Inc.98-0.3
HWM 0.40-11.785-15-1564.07Howmet Aerospace Inc.427-0.4
TSLA*0.38-20.553-53-5859.48Tesla Inc.102-0.8
ANET 0.24-40.972-37-3335.81Arista Networks Inc.108-1.0
APH 0.33-101.196-34-2227.29Amphenol Corporation124-3.3
NVDA*0.58-61.163-58-5274.61NVIDIA Corporation143-3.5
RTX 0.47-90.848-22-2215.89RTX Corporation72-4.2
LLY*0.45-121.272-35-2134.97Eli Lilly and Company166-5.4
META*0.29-221.012-31-31114.66Meta Platforms Inc.369-6.4
MSFT*0.56-131.232-29-2918.64Microsoft Corporation64-7.3
JPM*1.05-81.193-34-3415.14JPMorgan Chase & Co.44-8.4
ARES 0.38-230.942-34-3225.87Ares Management Corporation80-8.7
AZO 0.79-120.826-22-1919.48AutoZone Inc.102-9.5
COST 1.63-61.358-26-2022.67Costco Wholesale Corporation113-9.8
ORLY 0.92-121.031-21-1620.97O'Reilly Automotive Inc.131-11.0
MSI 0.76-151.340-21-2515.15Motorola Solutions Inc.60-11.4
EXE 0.55-430.468-61-2244.30Expand Energy Corporation201-23.7

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