Saturday, July 25, 2026

Stats for 2026-07-24 (4th week of the Month)

1. Market Trend Analysis

Multi-Week & Market Structure Dynamics

The market breadth structure as of July 24, 2026, reveals a distinct structural shift favoring value, defensive, and small/mid-cap equities over large-cap tech.

  • Market Capitalization & Breadth: The median market capitalization stands at $7,415M (mid-cap territory) with exchange listing balanced nearly equally at 51.3% Nasdaq and 48.7% NYSE/Amex. The elevated presence of small-caps in oscillator lists (e.g., IJR bound at 6.00 / osc 10.00; MDY bound at 5.10 / osc 5.00) confirms a broadening participation down the capitalization spectrum. However, the median cap level highlights a shift away from mega-cap concentration into broad-market cyclicality.

  • Sector Leadership Rotation: Sector concentration is heavily weighted toward Financials (31%), Health Care (23%), Information Technology (15%), and Energy (13%). The institutional portfolio changes mirror this rotation—prominent adds include Financials (GS, RY), Industrials (HWM), and Select Tech (ADI, GLW, DELL), while LLY (Health Care mega-cap) and CSCO were removed. Furthermore, top ETF oscillator momentum is anchored by Financials (XLF, KBE, VFH), Value (VTV, SDOG), and Health Services (XHS, XLV), whereas core Tech ETFs (QQQ, XLK, SMH, VGT) sit in the "Sectors Showing Signs of Trouble" or defensive categories.

  • Leadership Quality (GPA Insights): Institutional leadership quality remains exceptionally high across the tracked universe, with gross profitability asset (GPA) metrics clustering above 3.80–3.96 across leading financials (CARE, IFS, VCTR, ENVA), health care (LLY, LQDA, NBIX), and select tech (DELL, AAPL, ANET). The presence of high GPAs among regional banks and mid-market financials confirms that fundamental balance-sheet strength is expanding beyond mega-cap tech into real-economy leadership.

Mega-Cap Leadership Check (Critical Signal)

  • Oscillator Status of S&P 500 Mega-Caps:

    • Positive Momentum: AAPL (+14), AMD (+53), MU (+28), LLY (+6).

    • Negative/Weak Momentum: GOOG (-6), GOOGL (-7), AMZN (-7), AVGO (-16), TSLA (-22), NVDA (-12), META (-21), MSFT (-17).

  • Leadership Signal: The majority of S&P 500 mega-caps display negative oscillators. Mega-cap tech and communication giants are currently undergoing a trend exhaustion/pullback phase and are not participating in driving the broader market indices.

  • Market Impact: S&P 500 benchmark performance (SPY osc = 1) is being cushioned by cyclical and value participation (e.g., JPM osc = 4, CASY osc = 10, GWW osc = 11), while traditional tech leaders (NVDA, MSFT, META, AMZN) drag on market cap-weighted gains. This indicates a classic rotational market regime where index performance appears range-bound, but underlying participation is expanding across mid-caps and defensive/value sectors.

Market Regime Summary

  • Trend Phase: Late-Stage Growth Rotation / Early Mid-Cap Value Expansion

  • Risk Level: Medium (Elevated due to mega-cap tech divergence, cushioned by broad market breadth)

  • Market Regime: Defensive Risk-On / Selective Value Rotation

2. Economic Outlook

The underlying market internal data reflects an economy in a Late-Cycle to Early Stabilization transition, characterized by persistent margin strength in real-economy sectors alongside moderating high-growth momentum. Strong participation across Financials (Banks 13%, Capital Markets 8%), Energy Equipment, and Aerospace & Defense points to persistent economic activity, while heavy positioning in Low Volatility (SPLV), Insurance (KIE), and Health Care (XLV, VHT) signals underlying macroeconomic caution and tightening credit conditions. Market sentiment is best classified as transitional and cautious: investors are derisking out of high-valuation growth equities (QQQ, XLK) without fleeing to cash or long bonds (TLT oscillator remains depressed at 1.00 with negative CAGR trends), preferring instead to redirect capital into asset-heavy, strong-cash-flow cyclicals and high-GPA value plays.

3. Investment Ideas

Capital allocation strategies should pivot away from cap-weighted index exposure toward equal-weight strategies, small/mid-cap value, and cash-flow-rich defensive sectors. Institutional flows clearly favor Large/Mid Cap Value (VTV, VOE), Regional Banks & Financials (KBE, XLF), and High Free-Cash-Flow vehicles (COWZ), alongside selective exposure to high-GPA semiconductor equipment (KLAC) and aerospace manufacturing (HWM). Investors should maintain a defensive-growth tilt, prioritizing short-duration cyclical value over speculative growth, while looking for bottoming setups in broad small-caps (IJR, IWM) as market breadth continues to outpace top-heavy mega-cap leadership.

4. ETF Opportunities

  • Defensive & Quality Value: SPLV (Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility), SDOG (ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs), COWZ (Pacer US Cash Cows 100), VTV (Vanguard Large-Cap Value).

  • Financials & Banking: XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR), KBE (SPDR S&P Bank), VFH (Vanguard Financials), KIE (SPDR S&P Insurance).

  • Health Care & Defensive Growth: XLV (Health Care Select SPDR), VHT (Vanguard Health Care), XHS (SPDR S&P Health Care Services), XPH (SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals).

  • Broad Market & Size Rotation: IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap), MDY (SPDR S&P MidCap 400), RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight), VOE (Vanguard Mid-Cap Value).

  • Cyclicals & Industrials: XLI (Industrial Select Sector SPDR), XTN (SPDR S&P Transportation), XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR).

5. Top 7 ETFs to Research In Now

  1. IJR (iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF)

    • Reasoning: Exhibits dominant momentum with a top-tier oscillator (10.00) and bound score (6.00), signaling a major rotation toward small-cap breadth.

  2. VTV (Vanguard Value ETF)

    • Reasoning: Strong relative trend (Bound 1.24 / Osc 6.00) benefiting directly from institutional capital reallocating out of mega-cap tech into high-dividend, lower-multiple equities.

  3. KBE (SPDR S&P Bank ETF)

    • Reasoning: Backed by 31% sector weight in high-GPA financial stocks, demonstrating accelerating momentum (Osc 8.00 / Score 5.7).

  4. XHS (SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF)

    • Reasoning: Shows powerful defensive trend leadership with a very high oscillator score (20.00), offering late-cycle economic resilience.

  5. COWZ (Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF)

    • Reasoning: Captures fundamental leadership and strong free-cash-flow yields across non-tech cyclicals in a transitional market regime.

  6. MDY (SPDR S&P MidCap 400 ETF)

    • Reasoning: High score ranking (25.5) and rising oscillator (5.00) validate that broad market strength lies firmly in mid-cap equity expansion.

  7. KIE (SPDR S&P Insurance ETF)

    • Reasoning: Features a persistent positive uptrend profile (Rank #4 in strong sector leadership) providing defensive carry and low correlation to mega-cap weakness.

Stats for 2026-07-24 (4th week of the Month)

List creation date: 2026-07-24

Median MarketCap: 6663

53.3% stocks on Nasdaq; 46.7% stocks on NYSE/Amex

Sector
Financials40%
Health Care18%
Information Technology16%
Energy13%
Industrials7%
Consumer Discretionary2%
Consumer Staples2%
Real Estate2%
Industry
Banks16%
Capital Markets9%
Oil, Gas & Consumable9%
Pharmaceuticals9%
Financial Services7%
Consumer Finance7%
Technology Hardware, 7%
Software4%
Energy Equipment & Se4%
Health Care Providers4%
Biotechnology4%
Aerospace & Defense4%
Commercial Services &2%
Household Durables2%
Consumer Staples Dist2%
Communications Equipm2%
Semiconductors & Semi2%
Health Care REITs2%
Insurance2%
Country
United States89%
United Kingdom4%
Canada4%
Peru2%
GPASym(0gpaamp5) IndustrySectorMktCapCountryName
3.96BMO Banks Financials 124721CanadaBank of Montreal
3.96CARE Banks Financials 754USCarter Bankshares,
3.92BUSE Banks Financials 2525USFirst Busey
3.88IFS Banks Financials 6663PeruIntercorp Financial Services I
3.84CM Banks Financials 107392CanadaCanadian Imperial Bank of Comm
3.84KRNY Banks Financials 592USKearny Financial.
3.80CLBK Banks Financials 2933USColumbia Financial,
3.96VCTR Capital Markets Financials 6078USVictory Capital Holdings,
3.92AAMI Capital Markets Financials 2882USAcadian Asset Management
3.84SEIC Capital Markets Financials 11904USSEI Investments Company
3.80BGC Capital Markets Financials 5581USBGC Group,
3.96RELY Financial Services Financials 4744USRemitly Global,
3.96PAYS Financial Services Financials 486USPaysign,
3.84MQ Financial Services Financials 1810USMarqeta,
3.96ENVA Consumer Finance Financials 5908USEnova International,
3.96DAVE Consumer Finance Financials 5121USDave
3.92ECPG Consumer Finance Financials 1933USEncore Capital Group,
3.92SKWD Insurance Financials 2451USSkyward Specialty Insurance Gr
3.96LLY Pharmaceuticals Health Care 1066550USEli Lilly and Company
3.96LQDA Pharmaceuticals Health Care 7667USLiquidia
3.96ETON Pharmaceuticals Health Care 1167USEton Pharmaceuticals,
3.92RPRX Pharmaceuticals Health Care 26078USRoyalty Pharma plc
3.88PACS Health Care Providers Health Care 7415USPACS Group,
3.80AMN Health Care Providers Health Care 1276USAMN Healthcare Services,
3.96NBIX Biotechnology Health Care 17674USNeurocrine Biosciences,
3.92KNSA Biotechnology Health Care 4835United KingdomKiniksa Pharmaceuticals Intern
3.92DELL Technology Hardware, Information Technology 282687USDell Technologies
3.92NTAP Technology Hardware, Information Technology 32864USNetApp,
3.88AAPL Technology Hardware, Information Technology 4891183USApple
3.96OOMA Software Information Technology 550USOoma,
3.84PANW Software Information Technology 263889USPalo Alto Networks,
3.96ANET Communications Equipm Information Technology 219089USArista Networks,
3.88AMD Semiconductors & Semi Information Technology 851092USAdvanced Micro Devices,
3.92SUN Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 10296USSunoco LP
3.84INSW Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 4568USInternational Seaways,
3.84LPG Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 1939USDorian LPG Ltd.
3.80DINO Oil, Gas & Consumable Energy 15918USHF Sinclair
3.96NESR Energy Equipment & Se Energy 2786USNational Energy Services Reuni
3.80FTI Energy Equipment & Se Energy 30600United KingdomTechnipFMC plc
3.96HWM Aerospace & Defense Industrials 115735USHowmet Aerospace
3.88CRS Aerospace & Defense Industrials 29995USCarpenter Technologyorati
3.96CXW Commercial Services & Industrials 3100USCoreCivic,
3.88SN Household Durables Consumer Discretionary 21030USSharkNinja,
3.80CASY Consumer Staples Dist Consumer Staples 31885USCasey's General Stores,
3.92WELL Health Care REITs Real Estate 177940USWelltower

0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).

% AllocSymName_currentListSymActionSectorsharesHldDlrHldallocHldPrice
5% AMATAPPLIED MATERIALS INC AMAT Information Technology1$536.34.6%$536.25
6% AMDADVANCED MICRO DEVICES AMD Information Technology1$522.04.5%$521.95
6% ANETArista Networks IncANET Information Technology4$696.06.0%$173.99
6% APHAMPHENOL CORP CL A APH Information Technology4$610.75.3%$152.67
4% ARMArvinMeritor, Inc.ARM Information Technology2$520.04.5%$260.01
5% ASMLA S M L Holding N.V. NYASML Information Technology0$0.00.0%$1757.09
6% BMOBANK OF MONTREAL QUEBEC BMO Financials4$711.16.2%$177.77
5% GOOGAlphabet Inc Cl CGOOG Communication Services2$638.25.5%$319.09
5% GOOGLAlphabet Inc Cl AGOOGL Communication Services2$639.55.5%$319.74
5%*KLACK L A TENCOR CORP KLAC Information Technology2$421.03.6%$210.52
5% LRCXLAM RESEARCH CORP LRCX Information Technology2$610.45.3%$305.21
6% MSMORGAN STANLEY MS Financials3$643.45.6%$214.48
5% MUMICRON TECHNOLOGY INC MU Information Technology1$921.08.0%$920.95
5% SCCOSOUTHERN COPPER CORP SCCO Materials3$537.94.7%$179.29
5% STXSEAGATE TECHNOLOGY STX Information Technology1$851.77.4%$851.69
5% TSMTAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADRTSM Information Technology1$403.43.5%$403.41
5% WDCWESTERN DIGITAL CORP WDC Information Technology1$519.84.5%$519.8
0% ADIANALOG DEVICES ADIadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$371.86
0% RYROYAL BANK OF CANADA RYadded Financials0$0.00.0%$209.09
0%*GSGOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC GSadded Financials0$0.00.0%$1061.23
0%*HWMHowmet Aerospace IncHWMadded Industrials0$0.00.0%$289.26
0% DELLDell Technologies IncDELLadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$437.5
0% GLWCORNING INC GLWadded Information Technology0$0.00.0%$146.65
6% LLYLILLY ELI & CO removed Health Care1$1,196.010.4%$1196.03
5% CSCOCISCO SYSTEMS INC removed Information Technology5$570.94.9%$114.17
These selected ETFs are ideas in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.258KIEInsurance* 2026-07-24
growth5.253VFHFinancials*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-24
growth5.251VHTHealth*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
growth5.003XLVHealth Care Select*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
growth5.006SPLVInvesco S&P 500 Low Volatility* 2026-07-24
cyclical5.005XRTRetail*Mid to Early Cycle2026-07-24
cyclical4.506SDOGValue* 2026-07-24
cyclical4.502VOEMid Cap Value* 2026-07-24
cyclical5.005XHEHealth Care Equipment*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
cyclical5.257KBEBank* 2026-07-24
cyclical5.259XLFFinancial Select*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-24
cyclical5.257XPHPharmaceuticalsLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
cyclical5.253XBIBiotechEarly to Mid Cycle 2026-07-24
cyclical5.253XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
cyclical5.253IJRSmall Cap 2026-07-24
cyclical5.254XTNTransportationMid to Late cycle2026-07-24
These selected ETFs are early signal in the current market environment. (* means 6 Month Grt < 0; + means 2 Month Grt < 0)
Style</>% AllocSharesSymbolNameDate
growth5.253VFHFinancials*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-24
growth5.252VTVLarge cap Value* 2026-07-24
growth5.251VHTHealth*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
growth5.253XLVHealth Care Select*Late Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
growth5.258KIEInsurance* 2026-07-24
cyclical5.257XPHPharmaceuticalsLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
cyclical5.257SDOGValue* 2026-07-24
cyclical5.252VOEMid Cap Value* 2026-07-24
cyclical5.253XHS Health Care ServicesLate Cycle to Recession 2026-07-24
cyclical5.259XLFFinancial Select*Mid and Early Cycle 2026-07-24
These selected stocks are ideas in the current market environment. Weekly and Monthly Fract better than SPY. * means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY.
#%AllocShareSymNameIndustryDateGPAVer
1100.0047.5*KLACKLA Corporation Semiconductors & Semiconducto2026-07-243.562,3,4
These stocks are from S&P500 which have a stong Oscillator. Spy Osc=2
SymbolBoundOscMax
Fract		Percent
tile		Draw
Down		Draw
Down
7yr		cagr
7Yr		Namecagr
By
dd		score
LLY*0.4571.275-35-2140.89Eli Lilly and Company1943.2
GS 0.4661.299-49-2925.04The Goldman Sachs Group Inc.862.8
JPM*0.5651.194-34-3417.12JPMorgan Chase & Co.502.8
SPY 1.0021.095-33-1913.67SNP500712.0
CAH 0.5131.097-48-2126.19Cardinal Health Inc.1241.5
AMD*0.31580.981-77-5547.66Advanced Micro Devices Inc.8618.0
FTNT 0.34400.948-36-3236.43Fortinet Inc.11313.6
PANW 0.22400.862-36-2736.06Palo Alto Networks Inc.1338.8
GWW 0.68120.863-28-2124.15W.W. Grainger Inc.1158.2
MU*0.12361.099-61-4452.51Micron Technology Inc.1194.3
AAPL*0.31141.141-36-2330.32Apple Inc.1314.3
KLAC 0.15191.399-37-2846.89KLA Corporation1672.9
CASY 0.20122.099-21-1726.88Casey's General Stores Inc.1582.4
LIN 0.5820.810-19-1814.16Linde plc781.2
RTX 0.2840.948-22-2216.92RTX Corporation761.1
ANET 0.1830.973-37-3238.89Arista Networks Inc.1210.5
V*0.4601.029-27-219.93Visa Inc.470.0
GEV 0.18-31.285-25-25135.72GE Vernova Inc.542-0.5
HWM 0.23-21.780-15-1563.11Howmet Aerospace Inc.420-0.5
JBL 0.21-31.099-47-3039.15Jabil Inc.130-0.6
APH 0.24-31.196-34-2330.97Amphenol Corporation134-0.7
PWR 0.20-41.198-47-2249.04Quanta Services Inc.222-0.8
CTAS 0.26-31.223-25-2317.78Cintas Corporation77-0.8
FIX 0.17-101.598-37-3264.52Comfort Systems USA Inc.201-1.7
AMZN*0.36-50.824-39-4712.78Amazon.com Inc.27-1.8
GOOG*0.31-61.198-34-3427.93Alphabet Inc.82-1.9
TJX 0.31-61.375-22-2115.87The TJX Companies Inc.75-1.9
HUBB 0.35-60.970-23-2021.06Hubbell Incorporated105-2.1
GOOGL*0.31-71.097-30-3427.94Alphabet Inc.82-2.2
AVGO*0.17-161.288-23-2643.57Broadcom Inc.167-2.7
TSLA*0.16-220.549-53-5850.79Tesla Inc.87-3.5
EME 0.25-161.189-36-3036.42EMCOR Group Inc.121-4.0
NVDA*0.34-121.061-58-5272.96NVIDIA Corporation140-4.1
META*0.20-230.912-30-30106.98Meta Platforms Inc.356-4.6
COST 0.41-121.238-26-2018.75Costco Wholesale Corporation93-4.9
MSFT*0.26-191.230-30-2915.32Microsoft Corporation52-4.9
WMT*0.36-141.291-24-1716.61Walmart Inc.97-5.0
ORLY 0.52-161.020-21-1818.63O'Reilly Automotive Inc.103-8.3
EXE 0.49-410.466-60-2842.76Expand Energy Corporation152-20.1

Posted by at 9:24:00 AM 0 comments
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)