What the Data Is Saying About the Economy
This week’s data shows several late-cycle and defensive signals emerging in the market, with selective pockets of cyclical strength. The median market cap dropped to 12,226, indicating that leadership is shifting somewhat toward mid-cap and smaller industrial and financial companies rather than mega-cap technology. Sector representation is dominated by Industrials (15%) and Financials (12%), while Information Technology is only 6%, suggesting a rotation away from high-growth tech leadership toward economically sensitive sectors such as infrastructure, defense, and capital goods.
Within industries, Aerospace & Defense, Construction & Engineering, and Electrical Equipment appear repeatedly among the highest-scoring stocks (such as HWM, RTX, PWR, and VRT). This pattern often occurs when government spending, infrastructure investment, and energy demand remain strong, even as broader growth moderates. Canadian banks appearing in the list also signals relative financial sector stability, particularly in North American banking.
ETF signals also emphasize commodities, energy, and precious metals along with defensive sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples. This combination typically appears during late-cycle environments with inflation pressures still present. The fact that utilities ETFs show weaker six-month growth but remain in the list suggests investors are beginning to rotate into defensive income sectors ahead of potential economic slowing.
The S&P 500 oscillator reading of -2 also indicates a market consolidation phase rather than a strong risk-on environment, with leadership coming from specific industries rather than broad market momentum.
Current Market Investment Outlook
The data suggests a balanced but defensive-tilted allocation strategy. Investors should prioritize industrials, energy, commodities, and dividend/value strategies, which tend to outperform during late-cycle conditions. The addition of stocks such as RTX, HWM, and BMO indicates continued strength in defense, infrastructure, and financial services, which often benefit from government spending and stable cash flows.
Exposure to inflation hedges such as commodities, gold, and energy remains important given the strong representation of ETFs like DBC, GLD, SLV, and XLE. Defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities also appear frequently in the ETF lists, suggesting investors are preparing for slower growth or increased volatility.
Technology should not be abandoned entirely—semiconductors still appear in early-cycle signals—but exposure should be selective rather than broad, focusing on strong industry leaders instead of high-beta growth names.
- Focus on dividend stability
- Maintain exposure to inflation-resistant assets
- Emphasize industrials and infrastructure growth
- Keep select semiconductor exposure
Summary
The current data indicates a late-cycle economic environment with persistent inflation pressures and increasing defensive positioning by investors. Market leadership is rotating toward industrials, defense, commodities, and energy, while utilities and consumer staples are gaining interest as protective allocations. Technology leadership has moderated and market momentum is narrower, suggesting a more selective investment environment rather than broad growth expansion. Investors should focus on dividend stability, industrial growth tied to infrastructure and defense spending, and inflation hedges such as commodities and gold, while maintaining limited exposure to technology through semiconductors.
Stats for 2026-03-06 (1st week of the Month)
List creation date: 2026-03-06
Median MarketCap: 12226
21.7% stocks on Nasdaq; 73.9% stocks on NYSE/Amex
| Sector | |
|---|---|
| Unclassified | 36% |
| Industrials | 15% |
| Financials | 12% |
| Information Technology | 6% |
| Communication Services | 6% |
| Real Estate | 6% |
| Health Care | 6% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 6% |
| Energy | 3% |
| Materials | 3% |
| Industry | |
|---|---|
| Unclassified | 36% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 6% |
| Construction & Engine | 6% |
| Biotechnology | 6% |
| Banks | 6% |
| Consumer Finance | 3% |
| Capital Markets | 3% |
| IT Services | 3% |
| Electronic Equipment, | 3% |
| Media | 3% |
| Entertainment | 3% |
| Office REITs | 3% |
| Real Estate Managemen | 3% |
| Electrical Equipment | 3% |
| Specialty Retail | 3% |
| Energy Equipment & Se | 3% |
| Metals & Mining | 3% |
| Textiles, Apparel & L | 3% |
| Country | |
|---|---|
| United States | 85% |
| Canada | 12% |
| United Kingdom | 3% |
| GPA | Sym | (0gpaamp5) Industry | Sector | MktCap | Country | Name |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.88 | HWM | Aerospace & Defense | Industrials | 101193 | US | Howmet Aerospace |
| 3.80 | RTX | Aerospace & Defense | Industrials | 273639 | US | RTX |
| 3.92 | MTZ | Construction & Engine | Industrials | 22991 | US | MasTec, |
| 3.84 | PWR | Construction & Engine | Industrials | 82174 | US | Quanta Services, |
| 3.96 | VRT | Electrical Equipment | Industrials | 95554 | US | Vertiv Holdings Co |
| 3.92 | CM | Banks | Financials | 92394 | Canada | Canadian Imperial Bank of Comm |
| 3.80 | BMO | Banks | Financials | 101766 | Canada | Bank of Montreal |
| 3.96 | EZPW | Consumer Finance | Financials | 1552 | US | EZCORP, |
| 3.96 | WT | Capital Markets | Financials | 2348 | US | WisdomTree, |
| 3.96 | FIGS | Textiles, Apparel & L | Consumer Discretionary | 2823 | US | FIGS, |
| 3.84 | FIVE | Specialty Retail | Consumer Discretionary | 12226 | US | Five Below, |
| 3.96 | KNSA | Biotechnology | Health Care | 3522 | United Kingdom | Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Intern |
| 3.84 | EXAS | Biotechnology | Health Care | 19723 | US | Exact Sciences |
| 3.84 | FSLY | IT Services | Information Technology | 3103 | US | Fastly, |
| 3.80 | COHR | Electronic Equipment, | Information Technology | 49573 | US | Coherent. |
| 3.92 | NYT | Media | Communication Services | 13214 | US | The New York Times Company |
| 3.84 | IMAX | Entertainment | Communication Services | 2185 | Canada | IMAX |
| 3.92 | PSTL | Office REITs | Real Estate | 549 | US | Postal Realty Trust, |
| 3.88 | LB | Real Estate Managemen | Real Estate | 2075 | US | LandBridge Company LLC |
| 3.96 | AROC | Energy Equipment & Se | Energy | 6263 | US | Archrock, |
| 3.96 | AGI | Metals & Mining | Materials | 20739 | Canada | Alamos Gold |
| 2.92 | SPY | Unclassified | Unclassified | -1 | US | SPY |
| na | QQQ | Unclassified | Unclassified | -1 | US | QQQ |
0GPA38TB (* means Wkly fast and slow Fract individually, stronger then SPY).
| % Alloc | Sym | Name_currentList | Sym | Action | Sector | sharesHld | DlrHld | allocHld | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% | SCCO | SOUTHERN COPPER CORP | SCCO | Materials | 6 | $1,109.8 | 10.1% | $184.97 | |
| 11% | SPY | SPDR S&P 500 | SPY | n.a. | 2 | $1,344.8 | 12.3% | $672.38 | |
| 10% | TSM | TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR ADR | TSM | Information Technology | 3 | $1,016.7 | 9.3% | $338.89 | |
| 11% | AEM | AGNICO EAGLE MINES LTD | AEM | Materials | 5 | $1,105.0 | 10.1% | $221 | |
| 11% | QQQ | Powershrs Qqq Trust Sr 1 | QQQ | n.a. | 2 | $1,199.5 | 10.9% | $599.75 | |
| 0% | RTX | Raytheon Technologies Corp | RTX | added | Industrials | 0 | $0.0 | 0.0% | $209.76 |
| 0% | BMO | BANK OF MONTREAL QUEBEC | BMO | added | Financials | 0 | $0.0 | 0.0% | $142.12 |
| 0% | *HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc | HWM | added | Industrials | 0 | $0.0 | 0.0% | $250.13 |
| 10% | MU | MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | removed | Information Technology | 3 | $1,110.9 | 10.1% | $370.3 | |
| 10% | APH | AMPHENOL CORP CL A | removed | Information Technology | 8 | $1,055.0 | 9.6% | $131.87 | |
| 9% | LRCX | LAM RESEARCH CORP | removed | Information Technology | 5 | $996.7 | 9.1% | $199.33 | |
| 10% | GLW | CORNING INC | removed | Information Technology | 8 | $986.3 | 9.0% | $123.29 | |
| 10% | NEM | NEWMONT MINING CORP | removed | Materials | 9 | $1,046.6 | 9.5% | $116.29 |
| Style | % Alloc | Shares | Symbol | Name | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| growth | 5.25 | 16 | SCHD | US Dividend Equity | 2026-03-06 | |
| growth | 5.25 | 6 | XLP | Consumer Staples Select | Late Cycle to Recession | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 5.25 | 2 | VDC | Consumer Staples | Late Cycle to Recession | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 5.00 | 2 | XLI | Industrial | Late and Early to Mid Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 5.00 | 1 | VIS | Industrial | Late and Early to Mid Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 4.50 | 1 | SMH | Semiconductors | Early to Mid Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 4.50 | 9 | XLU | Utilities Select Sector* | Late Cycle to Recession | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 4.50 | 2 | VPU | Utilities* | Late Cycle to Recession | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 4.50 | 5 | SLV | Silver+ | Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.00 | 7 | SDOG | Value | 2026-03-06 | |
| cyclical | 5.00 | 2 | VAW | Materials | Late and Early Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 10 | XLB | Materials Select | Late and Early Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.00 | 18 | DBC | Commodity | Late Cycle and Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 3 | VDE | Energy | Late Cycle and Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 9 | XLE | Energy Select Sector | Late Cycle and Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 13 | SLVP | Global Silver and Metals Miners | Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 2 | XTL | Telecom | 2026-03-06 | |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 6 | RING | Gold Miners | Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 1 | GLD | Gold | Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| Style | % Alloc | Shares | Symbol | Name | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| growth | 5.25 | 16 | SCHD | US Dividend Equity | 2026-03-06 | |
| growth | 5.25 | 6 | SPLV | Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility* | 2026-03-06 | |
| growth | 5.25 | 3 | XLI | Industrial | Late and Early to Mid Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| growth | 5.25 | 1 | VIS | Industrial | Late and Early to Mid Cycle | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 9 | XLE | Energy Select Sector | Late Cycle and Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 3 | VDE | Energy | Late Cycle and Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 2 | XTL | Telecom | 2026-03-06 | |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 19 | DBC | Commodity | Late Cycle and Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 7 | SDOG | Value | 2026-03-06 | |
| cyclical | 5.25 | 1 | GLD | Gold | Inflation | 2026-03-06 |
| # | %Alloc | Share | Sym | Name | Industry | Date | GPA | Ver |
|---|
| Symbol | Bound | Osc | Max Fract | Percent tile | Draw Down | Draw Down 7yr | cagr 7Yr | Name | cagr By dd | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJX | 0.45 | 3 | 1.2 | 83 | -23 | -21 | 17.37 | The TJX Companies Inc. | 82 | 1.4 |
| SPY | 1.00 | -2 | 1.0 | 93 | -33 | -19 | 13.49 | SNP500 | 71 | -2.0 |
| JNJ* | 0.72 | 23 | 0.5 | 56 | -20 | -20 | 8.13 | Johnson & Johnson | 40 | 16.6 |
| XOM* | 0.49 | 19 | 0.3 | 86 | -53 | -51 | 9.66 | Exxon Mobil Corporation | 18 | 9.3 |
| RTX | 0.39 | 13 | 0.9 | 51 | -22 | -22 | 17.24 | RTX Corporation | 78 | 5.1 |
| HCA | 0.30 | 12 | 0.9 | 84 | -31 | -30 | 22.50 | HCA Healthcare Inc. | 75 | 3.6 |
| PWR | 0.28 | 11 | 1.0 | 95 | -47 | -22 | 47.54 | Quanta Services Inc. | 216 | 3.1 |
| WMT* | 0.39 | 6 | 1.3 | 99 | -24 | -17 | 20.92 | Walmart Inc. | 123 | 2.3 |
| GEV | 0.21 | 9 | 1.0 | 95 | -27 | -27 | 146.14 | GE Vernova Inc. | 541 | 1.9 |
| MCK | 0.31 | 5 | 1.0 | 88 | -46 | -18 | 34.83 | McKesson Corporation | 193 | 1.6 |
| GOOGL* | 0.30 | 5 | 1.1 | 95 | -30 | -34 | 26.29 | Alphabet Inc. | 77 | 1.5 |
| KLAC | 0.14 | 10 | 1.3 | 95 | -38 | -28 | 42.18 | KLA Corporation | 150 | 1.4 |
| HWM | 0.24 | 5 | 1.6 | 90 | -15 | -15 | 64.23 | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 428 | 1.2 |
| GOOG* | 0.30 | 4 | 1.1 | 96 | -35 | -34 | 26.39 | Alphabet Inc. | 77 | 1.2 |
| JBL | 0.22 | 2 | 1.0 | 97 | -48 | -30 | 36.01 | Jabil Inc. | 120 | 0.4 |
| HUBB | 0.24 | 0 | 0.9 | 74 | -24 | -20 | 21.74 | Hubbell Incorporated | 108 | 0.0 |
| MSI | 0.59 | 0 | 1.4 | 51 | -21 | -25 | 18.52 | Motorola Solutions Inc. | 74 | 0.0 |
| LIN | 0.47 | 0 | 0.9 | 6 | -20 | -18 | 16.23 | Linde plc | 90 | 0.0 |
| GWW | 0.32 | -1 | 0.8 | 53 | -28 | -21 | 20.45 | W.W. Grainger Inc. | 97 | -0.3 |
| EME | 0.19 | -2 | 1.2 | 91 | -37 | -30 | 38.89 | EMCOR Group Inc. | 129 | -0.4 |
| APH | 0.13 | -3 | 1.1 | 98 | -34 | -22 | 27.93 | Amphenol Corporation | 126 | -0.4 |
| TSLA* | 0.16 | -5 | 0.5 | 59 | -53 | -58 | 55.05 | Tesla Inc. | 94 | -0.8 |
| AAPL* | 0.35 | -3 | 1.0 | 30 | -37 | -23 | 28.86 | Apple Inc. | 125 | -1.1 |
| LLY* | 0.28 | -5 | 1.2 | 75 | -35 | -21 | 34.15 | Eli Lilly and Company | 162 | -1.4 |
| JPM* | 0.30 | -9 | 0.9 | 95 | -34 | -34 | 15.79 | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | 46 | -2.7 |
| TMUS | 0.32 | -9 | 1.3 | 19 | -21 | -23 | 17.71 | T-Mobile US Inc. | 77 | -2.9 |
| COST | 0.59 | -5 | 1.3 | 62 | -27 | -20 | 24.18 | Costco Wholesale Corporation | 120 | -3.0 |
| CTAS | 0.37 | -8 | 1.5 | 30 | -25 | -19 | 21.93 | Cintas Corporation | 115 | -3.0 |
| AZO | 0.33 | -9 | 0.9 | 35 | -22 | -16 | 21.43 | AutoZone Inc. | 133 | -3.0 |
| AMZN* | 0.29 | -11 | 0.8 | 24 | -40 | -47 | 14.34 | Amazon.com Inc. | 30 | -3.2 |
| AVGO* | 0.20 | -17 | 1.3 | 95 | -23 | -26 | 42.92 | Broadcom Inc. | 165 | -3.4 |
| SNPS | 0.20 | -17 | 1.2 | 16 | -28 | -30 | 22.83 | Synopsys Inc. | 76 | -3.4 |
| ORLY | 0.31 | -11 | 1.1 | 36 | -21 | -15 | 21.06 | O'Reilly Automotive Inc. | 140 | -3.4 |
| FTNT | 0.27 | -13 | 0.9 | 23 | -36 | -32 | 26.02 | Fortinet Inc. | 81 | -3.5 |
| V* | 0.36 | -11 | 1.1 | 35 | -27 | -21 | 11.53 | Visa Inc. | 54 | -4.0 |
| FICO | 0.16 | -26 | 1.3 | 25 | -29 | -36 | 29.21 | Fair Isaac Corporation | 81 | -4.2 |
| ARES | 0.14 | -37 | 0.9 | 45 | -32 | -28 | 25.28 | Ares Management Corporation | 90 | -5.2 |
| MSFT* | 0.27 | -20 | 1.3 | 36 | -29 | -28 | 20.36 | Microsoft Corporation | 72 | -5.4 |
| NVDA* | 0.34 | -20 | 1.1 | 66 | -58 | -52 | 73.21 | NVIDIA Corporation | 140 | -6.8 |
| META* | 0.29 | -24 | 1.3 | 13 | -30 | -30 | 123.36 | Meta Platforms Inc. | 411 | -7.0 |
| EXE | 0.30 | -39 | 0.4 | 70 | -61 | -21 | 46.52 | Expand Energy Corporation | 221 | -11.7 |
