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Monday, November 21, 2016
The market is very strong and can be described as a "lock out market." This is a market where most investors missed the turn and now can't find buyable entries to get invested. If you weren't buying during the first few days of the rally, you are in most cases to late to buy the leading stocks. You now either have to wait for a pullback or a new base to form. The model list of stocks, that I go through almost every day, is a great starting place for ideas. The problem right now is that many are too extended in price. Financials, Iron Ore and Copper are some of the newest groups emerging since the election. Over the next couple of weeks some in those areas might provide some possible buys. Freeport-McMoran, (FCX) is example of a stock that actually started to move before the election, rallied almost 30%, consolidated and jumped up again today. That is the type of setup we have to keep an eye out since so many are extended in price.
Saturday, November 19, 2016
Stock Lists and charts updated
Stock Lists, Stocks Grades and charts have been updated as of 11/18/2016
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Market theme after the election
If rates go up soon the dollar will get stronger compared to
other currencies. This is begin borne out by gold and silver sectors showing
trouble in their monthly chart pattern along with VWO (FTSE emerging markets).
The REITS are showing signs of trouble, they should go down if rates go up. VHF
(Financials) are showing strength. If rates go up banks should perform well. So
one of the themes after the election has been that rates may go up according to
the price behavior of rate dependent sectors. Look at the "Sector ETF Analysis Weekly" tab.
Another theme is that VOE (MidCap Value), VTV (LargeCap
Value) and SDOG (value stocks in S&P500) are all showing good price
pattern. As David Ryan mentioned in his post that value stocks have shown two
strong days in a row. This is borne out by Growth vs Value chart as well. The
blue line has started to point down showing value stocks outperformed growth
stocks last week.
Thursday, November 10, 2016
A quick note on today's market action:
Following the election, the market has been all over the map. Dropping 750 points overnight as the election results were coming in and then rallying over 350 points from the low Wednesday morning! Today, the Dow continued to rally while the NASDQ was down. Many sectors were effected by the speculation of what a Trump Administration would do. The volatility will probably continue for a few more days. I would concentrate on stock selection and especially in the model list of stocks with high ratings. There should be a few of these that emerge as leaders. Also keep an eye on the Growth vs Value Chart because the value stocks have had two strong days in a row.
Following the election, the market has been all over the map. Dropping 750 points overnight as the election results were coming in and then rallying over 350 points from the low Wednesday morning! Today, the Dow continued to rally while the NASDQ was down. Many sectors were effected by the speculation of what a Trump Administration would do. The volatility will probably continue for a few more days. I would concentrate on stock selection and especially in the model list of stocks with high ratings. There should be a few of these that emerge as leaders. Also keep an eye on the Growth vs Value Chart because the value stocks have had two strong days in a row.
Sunday, November 6, 2016
current market state is filled with fear
The current market state is filled with fear. The VIX index
is at 22.5, a high value. One way to take advantage of this is to buy long term
put option on VXX. After the election as the fear subsides VXX should fall.
Again there are no guarantees. For any trade including this one you
should have an exit plan if the trade does not work in your favor.
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