Sunday, June 4, 2023

Analyzing Sector Strengths: Indications of an Early to Mid-Cycle Economic Landscape

The current economic landscape appears to be in the early to mid-cycle stage, as indicated by the strong sectors that perform well during this period. Semiconductors (SMH), the technology sector (XLK), and information technology (VGT) all thrive in this phase.  

Additionally, growth-focused sectors like QQQ, large-cap growth (VUG), and the Nasdaq Index (ONEQ) exhibit strength. Consumer discretionary (XLY) also shows promise during the early cycle. 

In terms of communication services, XLC operates effectively during the mid-cycle stage. Among the sectors with weak uptrends, XWEB (internet), XSW (software & services), and XBI (biotech) struggle to maintain their momentum. 

 Discretionary (VCR) and the SP500 (SPY) perform well during the early cycle, the Total Stock Market (VTI) also shows resilience. 

 Transportation (XTN) and extended market (VXF) sectors operate effectively in the mid to late cycle, while small-cap (IWM) and mid-cap growth (VOT) sectors demonstrate their potential. 

 Based on the sector strength information, we can deduce that we are currently in an early to mid-cycle stage of the economic cycle. This deduction is based solely on the sectors currently showing strength.

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