The data below paints a very clear late-cycle, inflation-aware market theme. Leadership is concentrated in Materials (32%)—specifically precious metals and miners—alongside Health Care (20%) and selective Financials (13%), while traditional growth leadership is becoming more selective.
The heavy presence of gold, silver, and royalty companies (AU, NEM, AEM, WPM, RGLD, PAAS) combined with strong ETF exposure to GLD, SLV, SLVP, RING, and XME signals a market positioning for persistent inflation risk, currency debasement concerns, and defensive capital preservation. At the same time, health care—particularly pharmaceuticals, biotech, equipment, and services—appears as the preferred defensive growth area, consistent with a late-cycle to recessionary transition. The country mix (63% U.S., 27% Canada) reinforces this commodity-tilted narrative, as Canadian listings dominate precious metals exposure.
At the stock and factor level, the theme becomes even sharper: quality and cash-flow dominance over speculative beta. Strong oscillators favor durable compounders like GOOG, GOOGL, LLY, APH, GS, MS, while several former momentum darlings (NVDA, META, MSFT, AVGO) show weakening fractal and drawdown characteristics despite long-term strength—suggesting rotation rather than outright risk-off.
Semiconductor exposure remains, but is more tactical (LRCX, MU) rather than broad beta. Financials favor capital markets and insurers over pure lending, while consumer exposure is selective and defensive rather than discretionary-led. Overall, this data reflects a market that is still invested, but no longer complacent—favoring inflation hedges, balance-sheet strength, and late-cycle resilience over aggressive growth chasing.
The market is not risk-off — it is reallocating toward inflation protection, balance-sheet strength, and earnings durability.
